Fresno State-San Jose State Preview, Prediction

The Valley Trophy is on the line on Saturday night when the Fresno State Bulldogs travel to meet the San Jose State Spartans in the regular season finale for both teams.

Kickoff is at 7:30 pm PT and will be on the television on Fox Sports 1 (FS1). Can’t be in front of a TV on Saturday night? You can also catch the game on the Bulldog Sports Network.

What to expect:

Fresno State saw its MWC Championship Game hopes ride off into the night last week against Utah State. However, the Bulldogs can still finish the season strong with a win over a reeling San Jose State team. A win by Fresno State would get them to 8-4, and in prime position for a bowl invitation from one of the top bowls with MWC tie-ins.

San Jose State, on the other hand, has disappeared pretty much this season. A favorite by many to make it to a bowl game, and perhaps be a sleeper in the MWC race, has fallen flat on their noses. Coming into Saturday’s game, the Spartans have lost three in a row, and five of their last six. They have been held to 10 points or less in their last two contests and have seen more than 30 points just four times this season. It will be tough sledding again this week against the Bulldogs defense.

Fresno State’s defense is number two in the conference, and 15th in the country, in total defense allowing just under 300 yards per game at 299.5. The Bulldogs did allow their most rushing yards in a game all season last week with 227 against Utah State.

The good news? San Jose State is not known for running the football. Averaging just 120 yards rushing per game this season, the Spartans have been airing it out, throwing for 300 yards per game this season.

Walker Eget is their usual starting quarterback, but he was injured in the contest with San Diego State last week. That means that Tama Amisone will be starting for the Spartans. Amisone was 15-for-27 for 104 yards and an interception in relief. Amisone can also use his legs, he carried the ball 13 times for 75 yards in the contest as well.

An inexperienced quarterback may seem like a good thing for Fresno State’s defense. However, in their two big games this season with dual threat quarterbacks, Kansas and Utah State, the defense struggled. They will need to spy the San Jose State freshman if they do not want a repeat of last week.

On offense, Fresno State went back to EJ Warner last week, and he was his usual self. Efficient, but turnover prone. Warner went 23-for-33 for 187 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Whoever gets the start at quarterback, Warner or Carson Conklin, the Bulldogs will look to exploit the weak San Jose State rush defense.

The Spartans allow 149 yards on the ground over the entire season, but their last four games have seen that average at 185 a game. Each of the last three weeks have seen 167 yards, or higher. That bodes well for the Fresno State rushing attack. So, as has been the case for much of the season, expect a ton of carries by the Bulldog backs.

Prediction:

Even though this is a reeling San Jose State team, they have nothing to lose. This reminds me a lot of the Colorado State game this season where the Rams were desperate and blew out the Bulldogs.

For Fresno State, they need to stick to their game plan that has got them to 7-4, and that is run the ball and play hard nosed defense. If they can do that, and I suspect they will, then win eight will be a certainty. I like the Bulldogs to run, run, and run some more, and grab the win, but close, Bulldogs 27-21.