5 Pittsburgh Steelers who could decide Week 13 vs. Buffalo Bills

The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Buffalo Bills this weekend in a game that has major playoff implications for both teams. Buffalo is currently the seven seed in the AFC Playoff picture, and a win would go a long way towards solidifying their bid for a franchise-record seventh consecutive playoff berth. For Pittsburgh, they hold a half-game edge over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, and a win would give them a leg up on their competition in what’s shaping up to be a wild chase for the divisional crown.

Pittsburgh’s playoff chances swing wildly based on the result of Sunday’s contest. With a win, their playoff chances sit at 53%, according to the New York Times’ Playoff Simulator. With a loss, that chance drops all the way down to 30%. Buffalo’s chances swing wildly based on this one, as well. Buffalo has a 91% chance at making the postseason if they win, and just a 69% chance if they lose. While all of those simulations are just that—simulations—it doesn’t change the fact that Sunday’s game is a big one for both clubs.

With that in mind, here are five Steelers we’re watching this week. It’s five players that Buffalo will either need to keep an eye on or neutralize as they try to pick up a big win on the road. _____________________________________________________________________________

QB Aaron Rodgers

Buffalo can’t let the venerable Rodgers sit comfortably in the pocket, because that’s merely a recipe for disaster. They’ll need to apply pressure early and often in order to make Rodgers feel uncomfortable in the pocket. Speeding up his internal clock and forcing him into throws that he doesn’t want to make will be a key to victory. While many quarterbacks hate pressure coming from directly up the middle, Rodgers has always been susceptible to pressure from the edges, especially in the form of corner blitzes.

I expect that the Bills will give Rodgers some pressure coming from players who normally stay in coverage, players like cornerback Tre’Davious White or nickel cornerback Taron Johnson, which will force Rodgers into some quick spin-moves or quick throwaways. If they can win their assignments up front, defensive ends Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa, as well as A.J. Epenesa, could have a huge impact on the game.

Rodgers is going to be playing just one week after sitting out with a fracture in his left wrist. He’s not looking to take extra hits, so I expect that he’ll look to throw the ball even quicker than usual. Bringing quick, pointed pressure from the edge after simulating pressure looks up the middle could be the ticket to heating him up and disrupting his rhythm on Sunday.

RB Jaylen Warren

Pittsburgh’s best running back is a well-rounded player. Warren is equally adept in the run game and in the passing game, as he can break long gains when given space thanks to his agility and breakaway speed. Stopping him on early downs, especially when Pittsburgh goes heavy with mammoth tight end Darnell Washington, is going to be a challenge for a Buffalo run defense that ranks worst in the NFL, but it’s not an impossible task.

The Bills might need to sell out on the run early, conceding Rodgers beating them over the top thanks to single-high, man-to-man defense behind a pressure look, in order to stop the run early. If the Bills can force a few quick stops and then their offense can score, they may neutralize Pittsburgh’s rushing attack based on game script alone. However, sitting in a two-high look and inviting the run is a recipe for disaster.

Buffalo needs to keep their gap integrity and stave off blocks while making plays at the point of attack. If Warren is able to gain chunk plays, it’s going to be a long afternoon for Buffalo defensively.

WR DK Metcalf

The main reason why daring Rodgers to beat them over the top could be a bad idea, aside from the fact that the signal-caller is a future Hall of Famer, is that he has a legitimate deep threat in Metcalf. Can Christian Benford stick with him downfield? Will Maxwell Hairston be able to handle Metcalf’s physicality? Can Tre’Davious White continue his recent string of strong play when in one-on-one scenarios with Pittsburgh’s top wideout?

There are some big questions to answer here, but early in the contest, Buffalo has to try and set the tone. I’d rather see them beaten long through the air because they try to stop Pittsburgh’s ground game than watch them die a death by the thousand papercuts of five and seven-yard runs.

Buffalo has the horses to bracket Metcalf in the passing game, which would force Rodgers to throw to other options like Jaylen Warren, Calvin Austin III, and Pat Freiermuth. Forcing those options to beat them is ideal, but they can’t be afraid of giving up a big play to Metcalf at the expense of defending the run.

EDGE T.J. Watt

Not many people can say that their brother had over 100 sacks in the NFL. Fewer people still can say that they have more sacks than their brother, who had over 100 sacks in the NFL.

After T.J. Watt downed quarterback Caleb Williams for a safety last week, he surpassed his brother, J.J. Watt, on the all-time sacks list. T.J. has 115 sacks, while J.J. retired with 114.5 sacks over his illustrious career. T.J.’s total is sure to increase, and while I’d love to say he’ll struggle to do so against Buffalo this week, objectively, that isn’t the case.

Buffalo is coming off a putrid showing where they allowed eight sacks against a ferocious Houston Texans front-four, and now both offensive tackles — Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins — are out this week. This is a recipe for disaster. Buffalo needs to be all hands on deck in stopping Watt, and whether that involves using a sixth offensive lineman, chip blocks with tight ends and running backs, or naked bootlegs away from Watt, offensive coordinator Joe Brady must come up with a plan that accounts for the opposing defense’s best player. Otherwise, we could be looking at a very battered, very frustrated Josh Allen on Sunday.

CB Joey Porter Jr.

I think that Porter is going to end up on wide receiver Keon Coleman for most of the afternoon. Yes, there are a few leaps of faith in that statement — mostly, perhaps, that Coleman will dress for the game and play a significant number of snaps — but given what most teams have done to Buffalo this year, it makes sense.

They use their top corner on whoever Buffalo’s “X” receiver is, locking him down with one player. Then, they bracket the Bills’ top wideout, Khalil Shakir, with double teams. This strategy is especially helpful if tight end Dalton Kincaid is out or limited by injury.

Porter is a lockdown corner in the Derek Stingley and Christian Gonzalez mold, so I expect a rinse-repeat game plan this week. Buffalo needs to adjust by giving their X, whether it’s Coleman, Tyrell Shavers, or Gabe Davis, some winnable routes. The plan can’t be back-shoulder, 50-50 throws that are 15 yards downfield. There has to be something more to keep that defender honest.

Porter has allowed less than half the passes thrown his way to be completed this season, so it’s a tough mark regardless. Buffalo needs to take note and be prepared to look elsewhere this week.