College Football TOP 25 Week 14: Conference Championship Scenarios

The top of the CFP rankings feel very lock-tight right now, but conference tiebreakers and two-loss teams that will stir up the most talk throughout the remainder of the regular season. We’re going to take a look at how those conference tiebreakers will play out on a scale from clear-cut to convoluted, and predict both the conference title matchup and its winner. I will only be including teams within a game of the leader or second place team unless a team two games back plays two of the teams in front of them. Let’s kick off with the always simple to figure out SEC.

SEC

CURRENT TITLE GAME: GEORGIA vs. ALABAMA

IN CONTENTION: 6. Texas A&M | 9. Alabama | 7. Georgia | 10. Ole Miss

Just four teams are alive for the SEC Championship Game in the final week of the regular season, but hell hath broken loose early after Texas A&M’s loss at Texas last night.

There is the clear-cut scenario: if Alabama wins, they’re in, and we get yet another Alabama versus Georgia matchup.

The Iron Bowl now dictates everything this weekend. Georgia came into the week finished in SEC play and needed a domino to fall. Ole Miss has seen one of the two they need fall as well. Let’s look at the two other teams in contention:

GEORGIA IS IN WITH: an Alabama OR Texas A&M LOSSOLE MISS IS IN WITH: a WIN + A&M LOSS + Alabama LOSS

BIG TEN

CURRENT TITLE GAME: OHIO STATE vs. INDIANA

IN CONTENTION: 1. Ohio State | 2. Indiana | 3. Oregon | 16. Michigan

After running through the Big Ten with no push back, Ohio State and Indiana control their own destinies. Indiana easily finished their perfect regular season on Friday night with a win over Purdue, locking up their spot in Indianapolis. In doing so, there are just two possible Big Ten Championship games:

1. OHIO STATE vs. INDIANA — Buckeyes win and they’re in2. INDIANA vs. OREGON — Michigan def. Ohio State, Oregon def. Washington

Big XII

CURRENT TITLE GAME: TEXAS TECH vs. BYU

IN CONTENTION: 4. Texas Tech | 12. BYU | 11. Utah | 29. Arizona State

Just four teams remain in what’s been the least dramatic race to the finish line among the power conferences thus far. Texas Tech and BYU are on a collision course for a rematch. Tech has to finish business in Morgantown against a scrappy but overmatched West Virginia squad while BYU hosts UCF. These are two teams outside to top 70 in the country, so expect this to be as boring as possible. However, should one or both teams slip up, there’s some potential fun on the horizon for Arizona State and/or Utah.

UTAH IS IN WITH: a WIN @ Kansas + a Texas Tech LOSS + WINS by Arizona State AND BYUARIZONA STATE IS IN WITH: a WIN vs. Arizona + LOSSES by Utah AND BYU

Utah has a somewhat realistic shot at a Big XII Championship Game berth while Arizona State needs all the breaks possible.

ACC

CURRENT TITLE GAME: VIRGINIA vs. SMU

IN CONTENTION: 26. Virginia | 23. SMU | 28. Pittsburgh | 13. Miami | 54. Duke | 30. Georgia Tech

The ACC is easily the most entertaining race in the country for a multitude of reasons. There is…a lot to unpack here, and we’re going to break them down into three tiers: Ideal for Committee, Ideal for Conference, and Chaos.

TIER ONE: IDEAL FOR COMMITTEE — MIAMI WINS THE ACCLet’s face it. It’s what they all want. Miami was crowned the golden goose amongst a flailing conference, but should they find a way to navigate through the woods and win the ACC, they’ll have earned it! However, their path there is extremely unlikely. Let’s take a look at what has to happen:STEP 1: WIN @ PittSTEP 2: Virginia Tech WIN @ VirginiaSTEP 3: Wake Forest WIN @ Duke OR NC State win vs. North CarolinaORSTEP 1: WIN @ PittSTEP 2: Cal WIN + Wake Forest WIN + NC State WINThis was a very long-winded way of saying Miami probably isn’t making the CFP. The myth of a 2-bid ACC was never logical and would need total bedlam across the nation to even happen.

TIER TWO: IDEAL FOR CONFERENCE — VIRGINIA, SMU, MIAMI or PITT WIN THE ACCWe just touched on Miami. They’re the highest CFP ranked ACC team and ours as well. Virginia, though they sit behind three G5 schools in our ranking, are 19th in the CFP. SMU has rattled off six wins over their last seven games, and their win over Miami will charter some CFP love as they continue to ascend. Pitt also has a real shot at the CFP here should a couple things break their way in-conference. Their CFP case, should they win the ACC, is very clear: Mason Heintschel made them a different team. The Panthers are 7-1 since making the QB switch, something the Committee will take in context, and a three game run of beating Georgia Tech on the road, Miami, and then whoever they’d play in the ACC Championship Game likely vaults them in above a 1-loss James Madison or 2-loss Tulane.

VIRGINIA IS IN WITH: a WIN vs. VA Tech OR SMU LOSS + NC State LOSS + Pitt LOSSSMU IS IN WITH: a WIN @ Cal OR Duke LOSS + NC State LOSS + Pitt LOSS + VA Tech LOSSPITT IS IN WITH: a WIN + SMU LOSS OR Virginia LOSS

TIER THREE: CHAOS — GEORGIA TECH or DUKE WIN THE ACCGeorgia Tech played above their skis all season, and it came crashing down on their heads in a brutal 14-point home loss to Pitt with a chance to lock up a spot in the ACC Championship. Their loss to Georgia Friday night sealed up their fate in the grand CFP scheme. Here’s what they would need to have happen to squeak into the ACC Title Game, in chronological order:STEP 1. Miami def. Pitt (11AM kickoff)STEP 1B. If Pitt def. Miami, Wake def. Duke (2:30 kickoff)STEP 2. Virginia Tech def. Virginia (6PM kickoff)STEP 3. Cal def. SMU (7PM kickoff)

Duke has stumbled their way to the finish line, but there’s still a chance. Having the highest odds to win the conference just three weeks ago, a home loss to Virginia saw their chances dwindle. Tiebreakers love Duke. Despite losses to both UVA and Georgia Tech, they somehow could wind up playing Virginia in the ACC Title Game or leap them both altogether. Here’s Duke’s path to Charlotte in chronological order:STEP 1. Miami def. Pitt (11AM)STEP 2. WIN vs. Wake Forest (2:30)STEP 3. Cal def. SMU (7PM)STEP 3B. If SMU def. Cal, Duke needs VA Tech def. Virginia + North Carolina def. NC State

Duke has a real path here, but unlike college basketball, a Duke push to Charlotte will have the powers-that-be in the ACC watching through their fingers. A likely 3-loss Georgia Tech team making an improbable ACC Championship run could at least have an argument for the CFP, but an ACC Champion 4-loss Duke almost guarantees two Group-of-Five representatives in the CFP as the Committee has deemed the five highest ranked conference champions make the field. This is DEFCON 1 scenario for the ACC.

GROUP OF FIVE AT A GLANCE

Team

OVR RATING

GAME SCORE

SOR

FPI

EPA MARGIN

NET SUCC. RATE

NET YPP

North Texas Mean Green

+15.81 (20)

19th

24

42

+0.249

+7.63%

1.8

James Madison Dukes

+14.82 (21)

22nd

22

35

+0.225

+14.03%

1.9

South Florida Bulls

+14.66 (23)

23rd

33

26

+0.201

+8.23%

1.7

Tulane Green Wave

+10.78 (32)

28th

23

55

+0.150

-0.46%

0.8

Memphis Tigers

+10.70 (34)

37th

64

48

+0.088

+5.53%

0.5

Old Dominion Monarchs

+9.09 (42)

48th

48

54

+0.160

+7.94%

2.0

San Diego State

+8.83 (43)

43rd

43

64

+0.77

+8.46%

1.2

Navy Midshipmen

+8.38 (48)

34th

20

70

+0.071

+5.53%

0.8

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

+7.83 (49)

41st

42

63

+0.054

+3.36%

0.4

Toledo Rockets

+7.54 (50)

73rd

82

52

+0.051

+11.79%

2.2

CURRENT PROJECTED TITLE GAME: TULANE vs. NORTH TEXAS

No conference is hoping for a more straight forward finish to the season. With James Madison breathing down the necks of Tulane, the AAC is banking on a wave of green in some capacity to win the race to the finish line. Tulane claimed the spot as the CFP G5 representative last week, so the Committee clearly sees, foolishly if I might add, Tulane above JMU. The other side of the AAC coin is 10-1 North Texas. The Mean Green hold a more impressive win over common opponent Washington State than James Madison, and we currently see North Texas as the best G5 team in the country, ranked 20th, with JMU following behind at 21 and Tulane trailing well behind at 34.

TULANE IS IN WITH: WINNAVY IS IN WITH: WIN + Tulane LOSS

North Texas locked up their bid with a dominant offensive performance against Temple while Navy completed step one by beating Memphis. However, the AAC has a provisional tiebreaker that would eliminate Navy should all three teams win this weekend. Per their multi-team tiebreaker, because none of the teams played each other, Tulane would be awarded a spot in the AAC Championship due to their CFP ranking. Per the AAC tiebreaker rule, “If the highest-ranked of the tied teams in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings, doesn’t lose in the final weekend of regular-season conference play, it will be declared a championship participant”.

CURRENT PROJECTED TITLE GAME: JAMES MADISON vs. TROY/SOUTHERN MISS

The good ol’ divisional conference, the way it’s meant to be. James Madison has locked up the SBC East, going unbeaten in conference play. Their lone loss was at Louisville, 28-14.

The Sun Belt West is down to one game. Southern Miss vs. Troy. The Golden Eagles will host and are currently a touchdown favorite but are coming off two straight losses that made this win-and-in situation possible. This is the clearest-cut conference scenario out there.

James Madison needs a Tulane loss. Whether it’s to Charlotte or in the AAC Title Game, a Tulane loss frees them up just a bit. The flip side of this is they may get jumped by North Texas in the end anyways should North Texas win the AAC irregardless of opponent.