Patriots vs. Giants: Who has the edge in NFL Week 13?

The New England Patriots did not exactly enjoy a weekend off, but they were able to watch the action unfold from afar before their Monday night matchup with the New York Giants. What they saw was the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture remaining highly contested: thanks to a 27-26 overtime win, the Denver Broncos are now in the top spot again, meaning that the Patriots will need to win to regain the upper hand heading into their bye week.

In order to do so, they will have to beat a Giants team that has won only two games so far this season and already fired its head coach. That said, New York fields plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and will undoubtably pose a challenge to Mike Vrabel’s 10-2 squad.

So, with that said, let’s take a look at our head-to-head comparison between the two teams ahead of their 8:15 p.m. ET showdown on Monday.

Passing game

Patriots pass offense vs. Giants pass defense: Even though the Giants defensive line is among the most talented in football both on the interior and on the edge, the results for the defense as a whole have been lacking in the passing game. The team is entering its matchup with Drake Maye and company ranked in the bottom third in most important categories, including passing yards (2,734; 23rd), EPA per dropback (0.124; 23rd), passing touchdowns (21; 24th) and interceptions (5; 27th). While the Patriots are facing some major questions along the left side of their offensive line, the season so far points toward them having an advantage when it comes to moving the ball through the air. | Edge: Patriots

Patriots pass defense vs. Giants pass offense: Even though they are 2-10 and have started three different quarterbacks, the Giants have been able to successfully move the ball through the air. That speaks for offensive coordinator/interim head coach Mike Kafka as well as his players, primarily Jaxson Dart. The first-round draft pick completed 62.7% of pass attempts in his seven starts for 1,417 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions, with his EPA per dropback (0.183) ranking ninth in the NFL over that span. New England should still have the upper hand considering the superiority of its secondary personnel versus the Giants’ skill position players, but they cannot count on Dart looking like a rookie either — especially if their pass rush continues to be uneven. | Edge: Patriots

Running game

Patriots rushing offense vs. Giants run defense: New England’s run game has had flashes this season, but consistency has been lacking throughout. Now without Will Campbell and Jared Wilson for the foreseeable future ass well, things will not get any easier. That’s why the Giants come at the right time: New York has been downright bad at stopping the run, ranking last in the NFL in rush yards allowed (1,886), yards per carry (5.9) and EPA per run (0.193). Obviously, New England had a hard time against a similarly-ranked Bengals team in Week 12, but we are still giving Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson and Co. a slight benefit of the doubt in this one. | Edge: Patriots

Patriots run defense vs. Giants rushing offense: The Patriots’ once-vaunted run defense has showed some cracks in recent weeks, with last Sunday’s outing in Cincinnati the worst to date. Will the Giants be able to take advantage as well? Time will tell, but both teams’ recent trajectories point toward them possibly being able to find success on the ground. Since Week 9, when New York lost standout rookie Cam Skattebo to a torn ACL, they are ranked 15th in the league in EPA per carry (-0.030) compared to the Patriots run defense ranking 24th (0.003). The difference is not massive, but New England being without Milton Williams and possibly Khyiris Tonga could very well push the scales toward the visitors. | Edge: Giants

Special teams

Welcome back, Gunner Olszewski. The former Patriots rookie free agent is the Giants’ primary returner, and a potent one at that. Of course, New England has performed well in that are, too: Marcus Jones is one of the top punt returners in the NFL, with rookie Kyle Williams looking promising in his debut as a kickoff returner. With the coverage units and punters also fairly evenly matched — although the Giants have a slight advantage in terms of punt coverage — we are giving this one to the Patriots based on place kicking: New York is on its third kicker already this season, while the Patriots’ Andy Borregales is the reigning AFC Special Teams Player of the Week. The rookie has not been perfect either, but he has played at a high level and has the home field advantage over one-time Patriots practice squad member Younghoe Koo. | Edge: Patriots

Coaching

As noted above, the Giants’ coaching staff has seen some turnover this season. Head coach Brian Daboll has been fired and replaced by offensive coordinator Mike Kafka, which in turn led to a shakeup on the offensive staff (tight ends coach Tim Kelly is now the interim OC). On defense, Shane Bowen was fired as coordinator just last week, prompting outside linebackers Charlie Bullen to be moved to the interim DC position. The Patriots need to expect the unexpected against the entire staff, but — at least on paper — Josh McDaniels versus Charlie Bullen could be major mismatch in New England’s favor: McDaniels is one of the best play-callers in the game, while the 41-year-old Bullen has never coordinated an entire defense at any level. | Edge: Patriots

Verdict

Looking at the categories above, we can see that there are no overwhelming areas of advantage for the Patriots. On paper, they should be better overall, but personnel uncertainty might create some issues. Will Vederian Lowe hold his own against 13-sack man Brian Burns? Will the defensive line be able to plug the holes it allowed last week on the ground? Will the coaches be ready to have the kitchen sink thrown at them? All those questions and more will determine whether or not New England can live up to its status as favorites on Monday night.