XRP’s Death Cross Signal: Why Technical Analysts See $1.80-$2.10 Ahead

XRP-USD -7.43%

Quick Read

• XRP formed a death cross as its 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day average for the first time since May 2025.

• Analysts expect XRP to drop into the $1.80 to $2.10 range if it breaks below the $2.20 support level.

• XRP’s MACD flipped negative in mid-November and RSI sits at 47 in neutral territory.

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XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is showing one of the most typical bearish signals on its charts: a death cross. This technical pattern, where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average, signals momentum exhaustion and price correction. XRP fell to $2.20 in mid-November on low volume, and analysts expect the price to drop into the $1.80–$2.10 range.

While the broader crypto sentiment remains fragile, XRP's price structure suggests that unless buyers step in soon, a breakdown could follow. Here's what technical traders and chart watchers are saying about where XRP heads next.

What Is XRP's Death Cross and Why It Matters

A death cross forms when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average, signaling short-term momentum has weakened against the longer-term trend.

XRP's 50-day moving average is now below the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025, confirming the bearish crossover. Crossovers like that precede extended price declines across assets, and XRP is no exception. Traders see it as a momentum killer signaling further declines.

The death cross reflects what has happened—a significant cooling of momentum—rather than guaranteeing a future crash. Past instances show XRP's death crosses establish bearish momentum for a few weeks but rarely trigger immediate plunges.

The last time XRP saw a similar moving-average crossover in the opposite direction—a "golden cross" where the 50-day rose above the 200-day in late 2024—it kicked off a rally in subsequent months. This time, however, the pattern is inverted and bearish, and analysts are largely cautious about XRP's near-term outlook.

RSI and MACD Confirm XRP's Bearish Momentum

The death cross isn't the only warning sign on the XRP charts. XRP's RSI (a momentum measure) dipped into oversold territory during this month's sell-off but has since bounced back to around 47 (neutral territory, below the key 50 mark). This suggests a slight bearish bias but indicates extreme selling pressure has eased for now. It reflects that XRP's stuck in neutral, giving it room to stabilize or continue its trend based on incoming momentum.

The MACD—a key momentum indicator—is also flashing warning signs. XRP's daily MACD histogram flipped below zero in mid-November, and the MACD line has been signaling a bearish crossover at approximately -0.12, showing that downside momentum is building. In early November 2025, analysts noted the MACD was "flashing a red signal" as the death cross loomed, confirming a renewed negative shift in momentum.

Another bearish warning sign is XRP’s compressing volatility. Bollinger Bands have narrowed, and the token’s trading volumes have softened, reflecting the market is consolidating and awaiting a decisive move. The technical backdrop skews bearish, with lower highs and lower lows emerging on XRP's chart in recent weeks, indicating that sellers remain in control.

XRP Price Targets: Key Support at $2.00 and $1.80

With XRP under pressure, traders mapped out critical price levels that act as pit stops for either relief bounces or further decline. On the upside, the $2.50–$2.60 region acts as a heavy ceiling of resistance where multiple moving averages converge. This zone, around XRP's 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, rejected the token's recent rally attempts as any rallies above $2.50 were sold off below $2.60 within hours.

Breaking above $2.55 to $2.60 would crack this downtrend. A daily close beyond that cluster targets the next resistance at $2.80, and possibly $3.00, if buying momentum returns.

On the downside, attention is focused on several support levels that form a range down to around $1.80:

The $2.20 Immediate support

Buyers defended this zone multiple times this month, preventing deeper losses. It's the lower boundary of XRP's prior trading range, and a break below $2.20 on strong volume confirms bears are gaining the upper hand.

The $2.00 Psychological and structural support

The $2.00 mark is a round-number level that carries significance in trader psychology. It aligns with summer 2025 consolidation levels for XRP. A dip to $2.00 would trigger stop-loss selling but also attract bargain buyers and spark a liquidity sweep before any recovery.

The $1.80 Capitulation zone

Technical analysts describe the $1.80 level as a high-risk capitulation target if the downturn deepens. XRP last traded at this price area during its summer 2025 rally, and it marks a full retracement of that uptrend.

Detailed analysis shows remaining liquidity pools lie between $1.85 and $1.80, so a fall to this zone signals a complete trend reversal from the recent highs. While bears eye $1.80 as the ultimate downside target, XRP reaching it requires broader crypto sell-offs or new regulatory concerns. Hitting $1.80 would wipe out most of 2025's gains—a scenario bears dream about but bulls desperately want to avoid.

XRP Price Outlook: Bullish, Base, and Bearish Scenarios

Despite the bearish technical backdrop, three near-term outlooks emerge: a potential recovery scenario if bulls regroup, a base scenario, and a continuation scenario if bearish momentum persists.

Bullish Scenario

On the bullish side, optimists argue that XRP stabilizes and rebounds if it avoids breaching the lower support levels. The bull case hinges on XRP invalidating the death cross by quickly climbing back above the key moving averages, indicating the recent dip was a bear trap rather than the start of a deeper downtrend.

Holding above roughly $2.20–$2.30 is critical for building any recovery. If buyers reclaim the $2.50 level, it signals demand is returning. A break above $2.50 will be the first meaningful sign that bulls are regaining control. This will open the path back to the $2.60–$2.70 region, and potentially higher if a positive catalyst emerges (such as a major partnership or significant institutional inflows).

Base Scenario

The base case for XRP suggests it trades between $2.10 and $2.45. Earlier this year, court decisions and a settlement helped clear up the major legal issues that were holding XRP back—good news, but legal clarity alone won't push prices higher.

The price still needs momentum, strong buying interest, and support from large investors. For now, XRP seems to be in a steady range, and a breakout above $2.60 will require stronger market support or a significant catalyst.

Bearish Scenario

The bearish case remains front and center unless proven otherwise. Traders are closely watching whether XRP can stage a meaningful bounce. Recent price action has been characterized by failed rallies and weak follow-through on bounces. After dropping to $2.05 earlier in November, XRP's rebound to $2.11 lacked volume and fizzled. If XRP cannot reclaim the $2.15–$2.20 mark in the short term, the bearish momentum remains intact.

Losing the $2.20 and $2.00 supports will send XRP down to test the $1.90–$2.00 zone, and possibly the high $1.80 levels thereafter. Some analysts see potential for a 50% drop from recent highs if a worst-case spiral occurs, which implies targets near $1.25 (XRP's yearly low) based on certain Fibonacci extensions. Most consider that extreme, but it shows the downside risk if bearish sentiment lingers.

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