Packers Week 14 Odds: How big a favorite is Green Bay at home vs Bears?

Fresh off a big 31-24 victory in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, the Green Bay Packers have a couple of extra days of rest before their next game. Sunday afternoon brings one of the biggest games of the season for this Packers team, as they host the Chicago Bears in the first of two head-to-head matchups in 13 days and with the NFC North lead on the line.

The Packers head into Week 14 with a record of 8-3-1, a half-game back of the 9-3 Bears due to the tie. Unsurprisingly, Green Bay will be favored thanks to this week’s game being at Lambeau Field, but the number on the point spread may be a bit surprising given those records. According to FanDuel sportsbook, the line for Sunday is 5.5 points in the Packers’ favor, a substantial number that’s only a point less than the 6.5 that the Packers were favored by two games ago when they hosted the Minnesota Vikings.

Of course, the records only tell part of the story in this matchup. Chicago has just a plus-six point differential on the season, while the Packers are +68. Green Bay, meanwhile, is 3-3-1 in games decided by 7 points or less, while the Bears are 6-1. Meanwhile, Chicago’s defense has relied heavily on turnovers to have success; they have forced the most takeaways in the NFL, but they rank in the bottom five in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt as well as yards per carry on the ground. With the Packers coming in as the NFL’s best team in avoiding turnovers, something has to give.

The books are expecting a moderate score in this game as well. The total points line is set at 45.5, suggesting a final expected score of roughly 25.5-20 in Green Bay’s favor. The Packers have put up at least 27 points in 8 games this season, with that 27 mark being a bit of a magic number for them (having hit that number exactly an impressive five times). For their part, Chicago has actually scored more points this season than the Packers have, averaging 26.1 points per game to the Packers’ 24.5. It is defensively where Green Bay has a strong statistical edge, allowing just 18.8 to the Bears’ 25.6.

Keep an eye on the weather for Sunday afternoon as well. The game is set to kick off in the 3:25 local time slot after being flexed out of the early window, and a cold front is expected to blow in over the weekend. The current extended forecast for Sunday is predicting a high temperature of 21 degrees Fahrenheit, with sunset just after 4 PM — making it perfectly appropriate conditions for a December game at Lambeau Field.