NFL Draft: Players for Jets to consider if they can’t land a QB

The New York Jets have an incredibly easy schedule down the stretch. One that could lead to two or even three wins. And if the Jets finish with four or five wins this year, that’ll likely take them out of the range to draft a top quarterback. In a draft class with only two first-round graded quarterbacks, Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, it’s likely both will be gone in the top five picks at the latest.

If the Jets manage to get some wins and finish just outside the top five picks (the Jets have had the sixth pick in the draft more than any other position in franchise history), what are they going to do? I wanted to look at some players who are likely to be picked just outside the top five picks so that we can talk about the options that would be available.

Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Jordyn Tyson is one of my personal favorites in this draft class. The clear-cut WR1 in this class, there’s very little that Tyson can’t do.

We’ll start with the physical stats. Tyson stands 6 foot 2 and 200 pounds, prototypical size for a wide receiver. He’s expected to run a 40 in the 4.45-4.50 time, an average time for a WR. Nothing special here, though Tyson is very athletic and is likely going to test well. Speed’s just not his game.

Tyson plays both inside and out. So far this season, Tyson has taken 25% of his snaps in the slot and 75% out wide. But last year, those numbers were closer when Tyson played 42.6% in the slot and 56.3% out wide. Much like Garrett Wilson, Tyson has the versatility to line up anywhere on the field.

Now let’s talk numbers. In just 9 games this year, Tyson has been targeted 97 times, caught 61 passes, had 711 receiving yards, and 8 TDs. He has 2.37 yards per route run this season, which would be the worst of any top-10 drafted WR since PFF began tracking WR stats in 2014.

So why, despite the bad yards per route run numbers, is Tyson in consideration in the top-10? A lot of it has to do with the Arizona State offense. Tyson isn’t really being used properly. For example, against Utah, Tyson had eight receptions, but only 40 yards. In no world should your WR1 be averaging five yards per reception. And that’s not the only time that’s happened. Against Baylor, it was seven receptions for 43 yards. As for his quality, he’s only faced 16 contested targets all year despite getting more than 10 targets a game; his 16.5% contested target rate is phenomenal. He has only one drop this season.

Now, there are two other important things to talk about here. First, Tyson is a possession receiver. He’s not going to create much after the catch, nor is he going to create big plays on his own. Very similar to the likes of Drake London, Tyson’s elite skills are his route-running and catching ability. One of the big issues with this type of receiver is that he requires high volume to produce elite results. On a Jets team with Garrett Wilson, who also sees a high volume of targets, would that work?

Second, Tyson has had injury problems this year. He’s been injured twice, including against Arizona in this past weekend’s game. Are you going to use a top-10 pick on a guy with injury trouble this past season?

I love Tyson. I think injuries and poor offensive structure around him have limited how good he really is this year. I think he complements Garrett well as a possession guy who can take on the burden of winning routes on third down, where Garrett hasn’t always been the best. He’d also provide a red zone target that the Jets have missed. However, I also understand that there’s an outsized risk with trying to project a player improving outside of their college system, especially when injuries are involved.

Francisco Mauigoa, OT/IOL, Miami

Most years, there are a top offensive tackle prospect or two that many draft pundits believe will have to kick inside to guard at the NFL level. This year Miami’s Francis Mauigoa is such a player. Mauigoa happens to be the younger brother of Jets linebacker Kiko Mauigoa.

Francis has been outstanding for Miami this year, playing right tackle. He has allowed just two sacks and nine total pressures. That’s just a 2.1% pressure rate allowed. Out of all offensive tackles who’ve played at least 50% of their team’s snaps this year, Maugioa has the third-best PFF pass blocking grade at 88.9. He’s one of only three offensive tackles in the country to have a pass blocking grade over 85 and a run blocking grade over 80, joined by Indiana’s left tackle Carter Smith and Iowa’s left tackle Trevor Lauck. Smith is currently projected to be a Day Two selection, while Lauck is a true sophomore and won’t be draft eligible until next year.

Why should Maugioa move inside if he’s in contention to be the first offensive lineman taken in this class? There are concerns with his feet and overall agility, which is why he plays on the right instead of the left. He’s big for a tackle at 335 pounds. That makes him elite against the bull rush, but he has struggled with speed around the edge at times. That lack of first-step quickness also limits his effectiveness as a run blocker. Like many players who have had their future questioned, Maugioa is elite technically, but has size and athleticism concerns that put his long-term future as a tackle in doubt.

The good news is that players put in this tier usually go on to have long careers in the NFL. The last player to fall into this tier was Peter Skoronski, who has turned into a starting-caliber guard for the Titans, despite having the league’s worst offensive line around him. In fact, Skoronski is third among guards, min 50% of snaps, in PFF pass blocking grade this season.

The question that the Jets need to ask themselves is whether or not a guard would be worth a top-10 pick. They’re set at tackle with Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou, who both appear to be long-term starters. But the Jets desperately need help on the interior with John Simpson, Alijah Vera Tucker, and Josh Myers all free agents at the end of the season. If they truly want to build a brick wall in front of their quarterback and running backs like the Detroit Lions to build their success, perhaps drafting Mauigoa is the best path forward.

On the other hand, guards have very poor positional value, and there’s likely a player on the board who will make a much larger individual impact both now and in the future. So, is taking the potentially elite guard worth passing up a receiver or an EDGE?

Caleb Downs, SAF, Ohio State

Jets fans have been down this road before, taking the elite safety prospect who’s the best player in the draft, but doesn’t have the positional value to make it work. And yes, Jamal Adams turned out to be a phenomenal pick. He was an elite player for the Jets and then got turned into a giant trade haul that’s still helping the team today. But he wasn’t the best pick; see Patrick Mahomes. So why on earth would they go down this route again?

Well, Caleb Downs is in a world of his own as a player. He’s an elite coverage safety; he’s given up more than 15 yards just twice this season. He hasn’t given up a touchdown since his freshman year at Alabama in 2023, and he has two interceptions in each of the last two seasons. His 5.9 yards per reception is fourth best among all safeties. He’s incredibly versatile, splitting his time in the box, as a high safety, and even in the slot almost equally. He has played 212 snaps as the high safety, 185 in the box, and 122 in the slot.

Downs is an excellent run defender with 30 stops this season, one of just three safeties to have at least 30 stops despite playing fewer than 300 run defense snaps. He’s also only missed six tackles this season, one of only two safeties with at least 30 stops and six or fewer missed tackles this season.

Perhaps the biggest thing is that Downs dominates in the biggest games. Against Texas, Michigan, and Washington, three of the best offenses in the country, Downs allowed 11 total yards in coverage, had nine stops, and missed just one tackle.

The Jets are desperate for weapons on defense. Malachi Moore looks like a future starter, but there’s nobody next to him. They don’t have long term answers at linebacker or cornerback either. While Downs won’t be the sole answer to fixing the defense, he is a plug-and-play immediate impact player at multiple positions.

We’ve seen the effect players like Brian Branch and Kyle Hamilton have had on their defenses. Those are two guys whose teams completely fall apart without them, despite their positional value. Downs has the potential to be that level of player: a potential future All-Pro who plays as a weapon at every level of his defense.

The Jets have two questions to ask themselves. First, does Downs’ elite talent and versatility overcome the fact that he’s not playing at an impact position like cornerback or EDGE? Second, is Downs’ status as the best prospect in the class enough to get them to use their top pick on defense despite the massive need to build an offense for their future quarterback?