By Jesus Mesa and Leonardo FeldmanShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberA Democratic win in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District would have been unthinkable just weeks ago. But with polls tightening and national figures from both parties flooding the zone, Tuesday’s special election has become a high-stakes test of whether the so-called "blue wave" is gaining strength heading into the 2026 midterm cycle.
At the center of the race is Aftyn Behn, a progressive state lawmaker and activist from Nashville, who’s attempting to flip a ruby-red district Donald Trump carried by 22 points only a year ago.
“We’re the underdog, but I love an underdog story,” Behn told Newsweek in an exclusive interview on Monday. “This race is competitive because the Washington Republicans have put forth an economic agenda that hasn’t delivered and voters are looking for a change.”
Behn is facing off against Trump-endorsed Republican Matt Van Epps, a decorated Army veteran and former state commissioner. With the GOP clinging to a narrow 219-213 House majority, the implications of this race stretch far beyond the Music City. Democrats view it as a prize following their dominant off-year election wins in Virginia, New Jersey and New York. Republicans are hoping Behn's late surge is much ado about nothing, and that their base will reliably turn out now that the president has tuned in. Whichever proves true will act as a new data point for the political debate over Trump's effectiveness as a motivator for both parties when he is no longer on the ballot.
...Behn's decision to run was rooted in personal experience, she said. “I decided to run for the seat after a close friend of mine in Asheville was denied a life-saving medication from our state Medicaid program, TennCare,” Behn said. “That same week she received a letter saying her SSDI benefits were being reviewed and cut. That’s when I knew I had to step up.”
What started as a long shot has become a serious contest. A recent Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Van Epps leading by just two points—48 to 46 percent—within the margin of error. That tightening has forced both parties to recalibrate.
“This Tennessee race being competitive is confirmation that Republicans are now playing defense while we're playing offense,” said Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, who is advising Behn’s campaign. “We’re playing on their side of the field.”
GOP Spends, But Democrats Seize the Moment
Behn’s campaign has focused on affordability and basic services—messaging that echoes the successful Democratic formula in other battlegrounds this year. Her slogan, “Feed kids, Fix roads, Fund hospitals,” targets working-class and rural voters who feel overlooked by Washington. For her to win, many of those voters who went for Trump last year would need to break for her, or sit out the race entirely.
“I’ve spent the last 10 years working to build the organizing infrastructure we needed to leverage for this race,” she said. “On Saturday, we had a day of action with over 600 volunteers knocking on more than 13,000 doors. The momentum is on our side.”
That momentum has come at a cost for Republicans. More than $5 million has poured into the race, much of it from conservative outside groups. Trump-backed super PACs have blitzed the district with ads attacking Behn, often painting her as “radical” based on old podcast clips and activist comments.
President Trump himself joined in over the weekend, posting on Truth Social that Behn “hates Christianity, will take away your guns, wants Open Borders, Transgender for everybody, men in women’s sports, and openly disdains Country music.”
Behn said the attacks reflect desperation. “President Trump is saying all these things because he doesn’t have a plan to address the rising cost of healthcare and to ensure that working Tennesseans are able to afford groceries and utilities,” she told Newsweek.
...When asked about her past comments, resurfaced from a podcast clip, that she "hates" Nashville, a city that lays partially within the district she seeks to represent, Behn said she was "mischaracterized and taken out of context." “I’m a state representative that represents downtown Nashville, and I couldn’t think of a greater honor than representing the city that I love," she said.
Despite the surprisingly close race in a district he won easily, Trump has not campaigned in person on Van Epps' behalf. For Behn, his absence speaks volumes. “Nothing really shocks me anymore in the year 2025,” she said. “But I will say that Trump and his billionaire friends are spending millions of dollars in a race they should have won handily.”
Even if Behn does not win Tuesday night, Republican operatives who spoke to Newsweek said the mere fact that she's polling within the margin of error shows a major structural weakness for Republicans ahead of the midterms. “Any competitive race in TN-07 is a five-alarm fire reckoning for Republicans,” GOP strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek. “This is Trump +22 territory. When seats like this become battlegrounds or even close, you’re looking at a massive wave election fueled by brutal fundamentals—sub-40 percent presidential approval, economic anxiety, and just plain exhaustion.”
“Midterms typically punish the party in power, and Republicans own all of it,” Patton added. “The GOP will likely bleed seats nationwide in 2026. They know this—and it explains their nationwide push to rig the elections via mid-cycle redrawing of maps.”
Against the Odds
With control of the House hanging by just a few seats, Democrats are closely watching Tennessee’s 7th in the hopes the race will show the party can compete anywhere on the map — at least when Trump is president. Behn, however, insists the election isn’t about Trump, but bread-and-butter economic pressures.
“If you are upset about the cost of living and the chaos of Washington, then I’m your candidate,” she said. “We welcome you with open arms.”
Redistricting in 2022 reshaped the district dramatically. Tennessee Republicans split Nashville’s heavily Democratic Davidson County into three GOP-leaning seats. That move transformed the 7th District into one of the party’s safest—at least on paper.
...But the data shows shifting ground. Former Representative Mark Green, who held the seat until resigning earlier this year for a "business opportunity," saw his margin drop from nearly 70 percent under the old lines to 60 percent after redistricting. Trump carried the district in 2024 with 60 percent of the vote, but Kamala Harris won nearly 68 percent in the Nashville votes.
Behn said Tuesday's result will come down to turnout, as it always does. “If I win tomorrow,” she said, “it will be due to Black voters turning out across the district. And what a message to send to Washington.”
Still, most analysts say the GOP retains the edge going into Election Day. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate TN-7 as “Likely Republican,” while Inside Elections calls it “Lean Republican.”
Tuesday’s contest marks the fifth special election this year to fill a House vacancy. Another race, in a safe Democratic district near Houston, will be decided in a runoff in January. A vacancy in northern New Jersey will be filled in April by the state's new governor, Mikie Sherrill.
Interview with Rep. Aftyn Behn — Full Q&A Transcript
Newsweek:Tell us a little bit about your campaign and why you’re running to represent Tennessee’s 7th District.
Rep. Aftyn Behn:I decided to run after a close friend of mine in Asheville was denied a life-saving medication from our state Medicaid program, TennCare. That same week, she received a letter from the federal administration saying her SSDI benefits were subject to review and possible cuts. Then, following passage of the Big Ugly Bill in July—which codified the greatest transfer of wealth in American history—I chose to enter this race to address the rising cost of living. That seems to be the number-one issue voters are thinking about as they head to the polls tomorrow.
Newsweek:What do you think are your chances of winning tomorrow?
Rep. Aftyn Behn:We’re the underdog, but I love an underdog story. We’ve run an incredible campaign. On Saturday, we held a day of action with more than 600 volunteers knocking on over 13,000 doors. The excitement and momentum are on our side. I’ve also spent the last 10 years building the organizing infrastructure we’ve been able to leverage in this race. It’s competitive because Washington Republicans have pushed an economic agenda that hasn’t delivered, and voters are looking for a change.
Newsweek:You’ve been asked before, but can you clarify your past comments about Nashville—when you said you hated some aspects of the city?
Rep. Aftyn Behn:Those comments were mischaracterized and taken out of context. I was talking about why I decided to get involved in local elections, which are incredibly important. Instead of complaining, I decided to jump in and run for office. I’m a state representative for downtown Nashville, and I couldn’t think of a greater honor than representing the city I love.
Newsweek:I’m sure you saw President Trump’s Truth Social post claiming that Matt is running against a woman who hates Christianity, wants to take away guns, favors open borders, supports “transgender for everybody,” men in women’s sports, and openly despises country music. What’s your response?
Rep. Aftyn Behn:President Trump is saying these things because he doesn’t have a plan to address the rising cost of healthcare or make sure working Tennesseans can afford healthcare, groceries, and utilities. That’s the truth.
Newsweek:Are you surprised he endorsed Matt Van Epps but didn’t come rally for him or visit Tennessee in such a crucial race for Republicans trying to keep control of the House?
Rep. Aftyn Behn:Nothing really shocks me anymore in 2025. But Trump and his billionaire friends are spending millions in a race they should have won easily. That speaks to the strength of our campaign and how disenchanted Tennessee voters are with this federal administration.
Newsweek:What do you think of your rival?
Rep. Aftyn Behn:He represents the interests of the Billionaire Boys Club. He’s a puppet to the puppet masters of the universe. I’m deeply embedded in my community. As I’ve said during this campaign: I don’t care who you voted for or what political party you belong to. If you’re upset about the cost of living and the chaos in Washington, I’m your candidate, and we welcome you with open arms. I don’t believe he has the district’s best interests at heart.
Newsweek:Anything else you’d like to add about your campaign and tomorrow’s election?
Rep. Aftyn Behn:It’s important to understand the context of this race. Nashville used to have a consolidated Democratic district. After redistricting in 2020, the Republican supermajority carved it into three Republican districts. They overreached. If I win tomorrow, it will be because Black voters turned out across the district—and what a message that would send to Washington.
Request Reprint & LicensingSubmit CorrectionView Editorial & AI Guidelines
Add Newsweek as a preferred source on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search.Recommended For You
U.S.Blue-Collar Jobs Are Collapsing Under Trump4 min read
PoliticsFinal Polls, Predictions For Winner of Tennessee Special Election4 min read
PoliticsTrump Responds to Democrats’ Demands to Release MRI4 min read
PoliticsTrump ‘Wouldn’t Have Wanted’ Second Strike on Venezuela Boat4 min read
PoliticsNations Call for Ukraine to End Attacks on Black Sea Oil Assets4 min read
NewsPope Leo Backs a Palestinian State During Mideast Trip: ‘Only Solution’5 min readRelated Podcasts
Top Stories
NewsWhite House Reveals New Details on Donald Trump’s MRI5 min read
NewsUncommon Knowledge: Trump Closes Venezuelan Airspace, but Not NATO Airspace5 min read
PoliticsDonald Trump Gets New Warning Over US Attacking Venezuela5 min read
NewsWest Virginia Governor Gives Update on Guardsman Injured in DC Shooting3 min read
U.S.Justice Sonia Sotomayor Warns of ‘Two Extremes’ in Supreme Court Case4 min read
NewsDonald Trump’s Tariffs Face New Legal Challenge from Costco2 min readTrending
FloridaAmazon Driver Sees Food Left for Stray Cats—Ring Cam Captures What He Does3 min read
ImmigrationGreen Card Update: New Changes for Holders in December6 min read
NWSWinter Storm Warning as 8 Inches of Snow to Hit North and Midwest3 min read
Black FridayBlack Friday Spending Raises Eyebrows Over US Economy8 min read
WeatherWinter Storm Warning As 13 Inches of Snow To Strike: ‘Extreme Caution’3 min readOpinion
OpinionForeign Energy Companies Have No Home in Our Forests | Opinion4 min read
OpinionThe Hemp Ban Shows America Still Works | Opinion4 min read
OpinionConventional Wisdom: The Somali Minnesota Welfare Fraud Edition4 min read
OpinionRedefining Professional Degrees Will Hurt Everyday Americans | Opinion5 min read
OpinionAI Is Coming for Our Most Intimate Communications. Congress Must Act | Opinion5 min read
