12/2 Big Ten Basketball Preview: Conference Play Begins

Conference play officially begins today with three league games and two more non-conference tune-ups. There’s a doubleheader on FS1, starting with Purdue and Rutgers before USC travels to Oregon late night. On Peacock Iowa hits the road to play a top ten Michigan State. Also in the mix is a Big Ten Network doubleheader with Penn State and Maryland both hosting mid-majors.

• Time/TV: 8:00 PM ET FS1

• Line: Purdue -15.5

In the first of a doubleheader on FS1 Purdue heads east to face Rutgers. On paper this shouldn’t be a challenging game, but between some recent struggles Purdue has had in Jersey and the fact that Purdue occasionally comes out a bit flat versus lesser opposition, it could lead to a surprisingly more competitive game than expected.

Rutgers enters at 5-3, ending a three game skid with a win against UNLV last week. Those three losses include a dreadful loss to Central Connecticut State, 25 point loss to Tennessee and a loss to Notre Dame. KenPom ranks Rutgers 118th nationally with an offense at 155th and a defense still outside of the top 100. Rutgers defensive identity has been missing in action the past two seasons but their offensive inability is still on full display. Dylan Grant has had a strong start to the season with 15.6 points per game on 51.9% shooting, but there isn’t much here when it comes to weapons on offense.

That of course will prove heavily problematic against a Purdue team that brings depth at basically every position. The loaded frontcourt with Trey Kaufman-Renn, Oscar Cluff and Daniel Jacobson has already proved highly problematic for opponents. Everyone essentially knew what they were facing when it comes to Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, but the emergence of C.J. Cox has been a game changer for a backcourt that desperately needed a third weapon. There’s a slight dip defensively, but it’s still a top 20 defense per KenPom against an offensively challenged Rutgers squad.

Winning on the road is hard in the Big Ten and Purdue has looked a bit flat out the gate in most of their games versus weaker opponents. Look for Matt Painter to try to use tonight as an example and get his team a bit more fired up than usual. As long as Purdue doesn’t come out completely flat and lifeless they should remain undefeated.

Pick: Purdue

• Time/TV: 6:00 PM ET BTN

Penn State hosts Campbell this evening on BTN. Tonight’s game is the last game before a pair of conference games next week, with the Nittany Lions traveling to Indiana and hosting Michigan State. Their opponent is a 3-4 Campbell team ranked outside of the top 200 per KenPom and entering off of a 48 point loss at Wake Forest a week ago. The Fighting Camels are committing 15 turnovers per game and shooting just 26.8% from three. Penn State has sleepwalked through some of their non-conference games but they’ve also limited turnovers and shot the ball pretty well from the field. Look for Penn State to pick up another win before a massive uptick in the level of competition next week.

Pick: Penn State

• Time/TV: 7:00 PM ET Peacock

• Line: Michigan State -5.5

On Peacock tonight we have an undefeated seventh ranked Michigan State hosting an undefeated Iowa. Michigan State has knocked off three ranked teams so far this season in Arkansas, Kentucky and North Carolina. Tonight’s game leads into a marquee showdown against Duke on Saturday. Iowa is also 7-0, though their best win is Ole Miss. Last time out the offense fell off a cliff, knocking off Grand Canyon in a dreadful 59-46 slog.

Iowa is shooting the ball well at 53.1%, though the offense is a more strength in numbers approach. Outside of Bennet Stirtz, who is averaging 18.6 points per game, only one other player is reaching double figures and that is Alvaro Folgueiras with 10 points per game. Iowa’s lack of playmakers proves problematic against a top five Michigan State defense that will likely slow down Iowa’s offensive prowess dramatically.

The Spartans have started to improve from beyond the arc and if they can continue to shoot efficiently from three they’re going to be a tough out all season. A strong defensive unit already, when Michigan State’s offense matches their defensive ability they’re one of the best teams in the country. With the game tonight also taking place in East Lansing the Spartans should open up league play with a win.

Pick: Michigan State

• Time/TV: 8:00 PM ET BTN

Maryland will look to end a two game skid tonight against Wagner. It was a rough trip out west for the Terps, losing their last two games against Gonzaga and Alabama by a combined 72 points. Now facing a 1-5 Wagner should provide Maryland an opportunity for a much needed win. The Seahawks lost their first five games before an overtime win over Manhattan last week. Maryland has been turnover prone and is shooting only 41.1% from the field so tonight will provide one of the last easy tune-ups for Maryland to figure things out before the season really takes off.

Pick: Maryland

• Time/TV: 10:00 PM ET FS1

• Line: USC -1.5

USC hits the road tonight in their first Big Ten game of the season as they try to improve to 8-0. The Trojans won the Maui Invitational, though the competition has fell off in recent years as USC knocked off Boise State, Seton Hall and Arizona State. The Trojans offense has been paced by guards Chad Baker-Mazara and Rodney Rice, both averaging just north of 20 points, though Rice suffered an injury in Maui and his status heading forward is currently up in the air. USC is shooting almost 50% from the field and just under 40% from three.

Oregon enters on a three game losing skid against Auburn, San Diego State and Creighton, all of which came by double figures. Even their wins haven’t impressed much, beating Hawaii and Rice by a combined five points and not looking much better in their two other wins. Star guard Jackson Shelstad is shooting only 35.2% from the field and 30.4% from three, while the Ducks have committed 13.3 turnovers per game while shooting 40.3% from the field and 30.4% from three.

Until the Ducks can get Shelstad playing better it’s going to be hard for them to beat the better teams in the Big Ten. While Oregon is at home the offense has been a hot mess and there isn’t much confidence heading into playing a ranked USC squad.

Pick: USC