Where Illinois stands as Big Ten play gets underway

Illinois won’t open its Big Ten schedule until next Tuesday when they travel to Columbus for a showdown with Ohio State, but the conference officially tips off league play Tuesday night with three matchups. Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, Rutgers, USC, and Oregon will all begin their chase for a Big Ten regular-season title.

The Illini were projected to finish fourth in the Big Ten preseason media poll, trailing only Purdue, Michigan, and UCLA. They remain fourth in the league according to the latest AP Top 25 and other analytical sites. Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State all sit inside the top 10 nationally, while Illinois, Indiana, and USC check in at No. 14, No. 22, and No. 24.

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Through eight games, Illinois has looked like one of the conference’s top teams, but their metrics have taken a slight dip. After the Texas Tech win, KenPom projected the Illini to finish 15–5 in league play but that projection has slipped to 13–7, still good for a fourth-place finish.

Purdue entered the year as the clear favorite, but Michigan has surged into the frontrunner role after an impressive Feast Week showing. The Wolverines’ projected 17–3 Big Ten record would put them four games ahead of Illinois, an early sign of how high the bar may be this season.

For Illinois, getting off to a strong conference start is critical. Matchups with Ohio State and Nebraska next week open a favorable early stretch that also features Penn State and Rutgers at the turn of the year. The Illini should be favored in five or six of their first seven league games before the schedule ramps up with a difficult February slate.

While winning a second Big Ten regular-season title under head coach Brad Underwood may be a long shot this season, Illinois must handle business early to secure a top four seed in the Big Ten Tournament and remain part of the championship conversation deep into the season.