Alabama’s doomsday scenario: From conference championship game to missing the College Football Playoff

This Saturday, Alabama will take the field for its latest SEC championship, and it’s not too much to say that the Tide will be facing two opponents: the University of Georgia across the field, and the College Football Playoff committee above it.

This isn’t the usual “the refs are screwing us!” carping. This is a very real possibility given the way that the CFP rankings — which currently have Alabama at No. 10 — have unfolded this season. In short: What if Alabama loses the SEC championship … and misses the College Football Playoff as a result?

I know, Aw boo hoo, poor Tide, right? Literally no one outside the city limits of Tuscaloosa should feel bad for the plight of Alabama football, not for another two decades, at least. Without question, Alabama made life tougher for itself this season by getting blown out at Florida State and then throwing up on its cleats against Oklahoma.

But there’s a larger point at work here: When a team that misses the conference championship can get into the CFP, and a team that reaches it can fall out of the mix, what, exactly, is the point of conference championships anymore? (Yes, the real point, as always, is the wheelbarrows full of money conference championships generate. But we’re talking bigger-picture ideas here.)

Minutes after knocking off Auburn to claim Alabama’s sixth straight Iron Bowl victory on Saturday night, Kalen DeBoer addressed the question of Alabama’s playoff chances head-on. Being denied a berth in the CFP “would blow my mind,” he said. “That would be unreal. We’re 10-2, and 7-1 in the SEC with all these ranked wins, and some wins on the road. We’ve got more than a playoff-caliber football team. There’s not a question in my mind.”

In theory, he’s absolutely right. Alabama goes into the SEC championship as the No. 1 seed — that is, the regular-season champion in the toughest conference in the country — and that ought to mean something. But given the way that the CFP committee appears to penalize losses more than it values wins, Alabama’s two L’s are already two strikes against its record. And a third — even if it came against what would likely be, at worst, the No. 2 seed in the country — might be enough to bounce the Tide from the CFP field.

Granted, numbers in college football are like Bible verses; you can pick and choose whichever ones you want to make your case. Alabama is 10-2, like Oklahoma and Notre Dame, but Oklahoma beat Alabama, and Notre Dame’s two losses were to better teams than Alabama’s. On the other hand, Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss are all CFP-ranked ahead of Alabama … but Alabama claimed the conference championship’s No. 1 seed via tiebreakers.

That makes the SEC championship one hell of an all-in gamble for Alabama: Win, and there could be a first-round bye waiting for you; lose, and it might be back to Tuscaloosa to wait for a call from the Gator Bowl.

In all likelihood, Alabama probably has about a touchdown’s worth of margin of error. A close loss to a Georgia team the Tide beat earlier this season probably wouldn’t be enough to drop Alabama from the CFP bracket. But how about if the Dawgs blow out the Tide? Then it becomes a whole lot easier for the CFP to justify dumping Alabama by pointing to that haunting Florida State loss.

At the same time, if Alabama misses out on a playoff berth by playing an extra game while others like Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oregon and — most notably — Notre Dame get in while sitting at home … that might not be the final nail in the coffin for conference championships, but the hammer will be swinging. Who wants to play a game with little upside and massive downside?

Alabama is the most radioactive example of this dubious gamble, but others are facing similar questions. BYU is looking at the prospect of missing out on the playoffs with an 11-2 record with a Big 12 conference championship loss, and Duke isn’t getting anywhere near the playoffs with a loss in the ACC title game. (And maybe not even with a win, but that’s another story.) The point is that in the CFP era, the conference championships have been so devalued that even finishing second place in a Power 4 conference isn’t enough to guarantee a CFP bid … so, again, what exactly is the point of these games?

In the end, though, there’s a very simple solution to all of this for the Crimson Tide. If Nick Saban were still coaching Alabama, he’d absolutely be politicking for his team in public — he did that back in 2023 and got the Tide into the last four-team playoff over an undefeated Florida State. (There’s some irony at play with the ‘Noles unintentionally getting their revenge two years later.)

But behind closed doors, in the locker room, Saban would have a much more direct message for his team: Win, and everything else takes care of itself. We’ll see on Saturday if the Tide can solve their own problems … or if they’ll leave their fate in the hands of the playoff committee.