Perfidia Beverly Hills aiming a rocket launcher in close-up in One Battle After Another
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Cooper Hood
Published 9 minutes ago
Cooper Hood is the Associate Editor for all new movie releases, in theaters and on streaming. In addition to writing articles about these titles and upcoming releases, he also oversees content planning for each, ensuring that ScreenRant continues to cover major releases for months after their release.
He has written various reviews for ScreenRant that appear on Rotten Tomatoes, coordinated Oscars and San Diego Comic-Con coverage, appeared on CNN to talk about Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, and done select interviews with talent over the years.
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One Battle After Another was firmly entrenched as a major awards contender even before Paul Thomas Anderson's movie came out. Once it did, the question became how many awards it would win, including at the 98th Academy Awards. One Battle After Another has earned a reputation as a frontrunner, being the predicted Oscars 2026 Best Picture winner for many.
Before it potentially takes home the golden statue next March, many other precursor award shows will solidify its place or show some weakness in its standing. One of the first has now come to pass, as One Battle After Another won Best Feature at the Gotham Awards. It beat out some other potential Best Picture contenders, like Hamnet, Bugonia, and Train Dreams, in the process.
As the first major awards ceremony of the season, the Gothams can play a part in shaping narratives, even though there is no overlap between voters here and with the Academy. So, is One Battle After Another's win a sign of things to come for the Oscars? History suggests winning Best Picture is far from a lock.
Winning Best Feature At The Gotham Awards Doesn't Guarantee A Best Picture Oscar Win
Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another
The Gotham Awards have had a Best Feature category since 2004, which gives us 21 years of history to sort through to help put One Battle After Another's win in proper context.
The one thing PTA's movie can feel confident in is getting a Best Picture nomination, at least. Not that the movie was at any real risk of being snubbed, but 13 of the 21 prior Gotham winners went on to be nominated in the Oscars' biggest category.
It's interesting to note what happened to those 13 films. Seven of them did not win the top prize, while six also won Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (2009), Birdman (2014), Spotlight (2015), Moonlight (2016), Nomadland (2020), and Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022).
That means that only 28% of Best Feature Gotham winners also win Best Picture at the Oscars. That makes One Battle After Another's win far from a certainty. Another movie could gain more favor with the Academy, depending on how the rest of the awards season unfolds.
I'm not sure that this will happen, though. The film has been hailed as a major contender right after the first reactions came out. It's become the movie to beat, and it's done its job at the Gothams by winning. Losing here would've shown that there are other titles just as beloved within Hollywood circles.
However, while One Battle After Another's position strengthens further, the films that could usurp it have changed. Just as winning at the Gothams can be important to winning at the Oscars, losing here also is notable.
One Battle After Another's Main Competition Looks Different After The Gothams
Jessie Buckley and a crowd looking up in awe in Hamnet©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
While many films are vying to dethrone One Battle After Another, Hamnet has been at the top of that list for a long time. But winning the Oscar becomes less likely after losing Best Feature.
There are only two instances where a movie nominated for Best Feature lost at the Gothams and rebounded to win the Oscar: 12 Years a Slave (2013) and Anora (2024). Hamnet, East of Wall, Familiar Touch, Lurker, Bugonia, Train Dreams, The Testament of Ann Lee, and If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You and Sorry, Baby could all try to become the third example, but their odds of doing so vary greatly.
So, in addition to helping One Battle After Another's case, the Gotham Awards' results arguably also weaken one of its biggest competitors in Hamnet. The film will need to take control of the rest of the season and become a favorite with voters, and take advantage of any slip from PTA's movie, if its going to win.
Historically speaking, a non-Gotham nominee in Best Feature has a better chance to beat One Battle After Another now. The seven winners that failed to secure Best Picture all lost to movies that the more independent film-focused group ignored. Sinners, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Frankenstein are a few options that would meet this criteria.
Sinners or Marty Supreme, the latter of which has continued to build hype and earn more praise ahead of its release, feel best positioned to take advantage of a Hamnet slide and challenge the current frontrunner.
There's still a lot of time left this awards season and more Best Picture-like awards to be handed out. If One Battle After Another keeps winning them as it did at the Gotham Awards, then it could steamroll through the Oscars. But if Marty Surpreme keeps gaining ground and Sinners' love results in key wins, we could still have a close race for Best Picture.
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One Battle After Another
10 stars 9 stars 8 stars 7 stars 6 stars 5 stars 4 stars 3 stars 2 stars 1 star Like Follow Followed R Action Crime Thriller Release Date September 26, 2025 Runtime 162 minutes Director Paul Thomas Anderson Writers Paul Thomas Anderson, Thomas Pynchon Producers Adam Somner, Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy
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One Battle After Another
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Leonardo DiCaprio as Bob Ferguson in One Battle After Another
Leonardo DiCaprio with hood on in One Battle After AnotherClose
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Leonardo DiCaprio
Bob Ferguson
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Sean Penn
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The Oscars | Academy Awards
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