North Carolina vs Kentucky Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's College Basketball Game

The No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels head to Lexington for a clash against the No. 18 Kentucky Wildcats.

Early money has come in on UNC, shifting the spread from +8.5 to +6, and my North Carolina vs. Kentucky predictions are following the line movement.

Here are my best college basketball picks for this ACC/SEC Challenge showdown on December 2.

North Carolina vs Kentucky prediction

North Carolina vs Kentucky best bet: North Carolina +6 (-110)

The Kentucky Wildcats are 5-2, but all of those wins have come against teams outside the Top 200 at KenPom. In their only two games against quality opponents, they lost 96-88 against Louisville and 83-66 to Michigan State.

The North Carolina Tar Heels are coming off a 16-point loss to the Spartans themselves. That was their first loss of the season, with their best win coming by 13 points against Kansas at home.

UNC has issues with its backcourt depth after senior guard Seth Trimble broke his arm three weeks ago.

That said, UNC has an elite frontcourt anchored by superstar freshman Caleb Wilson (19.9 points and 9.9 rebounds per game) and 7-foot center Henri Veesaar (15.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG). They should have success inside against Kentucky, which is missing top defensive forward Mouhamed Dioubate. 

Kentucky is led by guards Denzel Aberdeen (14.0 PPG on 53/39/80 shooting splits) and Otega Oweh (13.0 PPG). This team likes to push the pace and score in transition, but the Tar Heels are more than comfortable with an up-tempo style and do a good job of limiting fast-break points. 

Expect the visitors to make this a competitive game and stay within two possessions. 

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North Carolina vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Both teams play at a blazing pace, which should lead to more possessions and rebounding opportunities. Veesaar is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game and has grabbed 7+ boards in four of his last five contests.

It's no surprise that opponents shot very well from the arc in the Wildcats' two losses. UNC will need to knock down perimeter shots if it wants to cover, and Luka Bogavac is its best 3-point shooter and has eclipsed 1.5 threes in four of his last five games.

North Carolina vs Kentucky SGP

• North Carolina +6

• Henri Veesaar Over 6.5 rebounds

• Luka Bogavac Over 1.5 threes made

Our beyond the arc SGP: Tarred and feathered

With point guard Jaland Lowe sidelined by a shoulder injury, Denzel Aberdeen has been handling the ball more and has logged 5.0 assists per game over the last two contests.

North Carolina vs Kentucky SGP

• North Carolina +6

• Henri Veesaar Over 6.5 rebounds

• Luka Bogavac Over 1.5 threes made

• Denzel Aberdeen Over 3.5 assists

North Carolina vs Kentucky odds

• Spread: North Carolina +6 (-110) | Kentucky -6 (-110)

• Moneyline: North Carolina +210 | Kentucky -260

• Over/Under: Over 163 (-110) | Under 163 (-110)

North Carolina vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Tar Heels are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games away from home. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Kentucky.

How to watch North Carolina vs Kentucky

Location

Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY

Date

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Tip-off

9:30 p.m. ET

TV

ESPN

North Carolina vs Kentucky key injuries

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