2025 Commanders’ Tank Watch – Week 14

On Sunday night, the embattled Commanders took the 9-2 Denver Broncos down to the final wire in overtime. Dan Quinn went down swinging, with a two-point conversion attempt to win it after the final touchdown, rather than settling for a tie.

It was a valiant effort by a ragtag band of scrappy underdogs, with a roster cobbled together from backup injury replacements, mid-season street FA signees and starters returning from injury and suspension, and Dan Quinn taking over for his demoted defensive coordinator to make the calls on defense.  The Commanders fought for every yard, down to the final whistle.  But in the end, it was just not enough to avoid the ninth loss of the season to guarantee a losing record.

If you take the view that the aim of every NFL season is to win the Super Bowl, then 2025 is now beyond any reasonable doubt a lost cause. While the Commanders are not yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, their chance of making it to the post-season is less than 1%. That doesn’t mean there is nothing to be gained from the remaining five games. The focus merely shifts to winning next season and, hopefully, for many seasons to come.

GM Adam Peters still has a lot of work to do to transform the Commanders into a perennial contender.  Two positives that can come from the losing season are an extended opportunity to evaluate younger players with game experience and improved draft position

In that respect, the Commanders overtime loss to the Broncos could be thought of as a best case scenario.  The team demonstrated the ability to fight back from the adversity they have faced this season, while also capitalizing on outside assistance to move one step closer to the top pick in April’s draft.

If the Season Ended Today

In last week’s official kickoff of the Tank Watch, we saw how the Commanders could not move any further up the draft order on their own.  They would require assistance from the two-win teams ahead of them.  As unlikely as that seemed at the time, they got their wish on Sunday, when the 2-9 Jets beat the Falcons.  The win brought the Jets’ record to 3-9 and caused them to fall behind the Commanders by virtue of a slightly stronger Strength of Schedule (SOS).

As a result, the Commanders moved up one spot to sixth place in the draft order.  Had the Commanders converted the two-point attempt for the win, they would have dropped to tenth place, between the Falcons (whose pick belongs to the Rams) and the Bengals. A lot can still change, and probably will, before the season ends. But the Commanders are currently on pace to have a shot at one of the elite prospects in the draft or a valuable top ten pick to attract strong trade offers, giving Adam Peters more draft picks to work with.

If the season ended today, this is how the draft order would shape up, courtesy of Tankathon:

Opportunities to Move Up

The Commanders currently sit behind the Cleveland Browns, who are also at 3-9, but have a significant SOS advantage.  Ahead of the Browns are three 2-10 teams.  The Commanders’ best chance to move further up the draft order comes from one of these four teams winning more games.

But to capitalize on such an unlikely gift, they will have to avoid winning any more games themselves, which could be a challenge, with upcoming games against the Vikings and Giants, and the Commanders showing a renewed fighting spirit and more starters coming back from injury. To have a good chance of simply remaining where they currently are, they will probably need one of these teams to win at least two more games.

Their best chance of taking the next step comes this weekend, when the Browns take on the 1-11 Tennessee Titans.  However, the Commanders face the Vikings, who are on a four game losing streak, so a Browns win does not guarantee advancement.

A win by either the Raiders or the loss, combined with an unexpected loss to the Vikings, would also move the Commanders up the draft order, because both teams have stronger SOS.  The Saints would need to win two games to fall behind the Commanders, due to weaker SOS.  The Titans would also have to win two, which is not even worth thinking about.

So, the Commanders main rivals for higher positions in the draft order at present are the Browns, Raiders and Giants.  These teams are likely to be jostling with them for the rest of the season.

Threats from Behind

The Commanders can’t relax at sixth overall.  They face stiff competition down the stretch from the Jets and Cardinals sitting right behind them with three wins, and the Falcons, Bengals and Vikings with four.  If they aren’t careful, and any of these teams tank the remaining games, they could end up falling out of the top 10 entirely.

That might not be a total disaster, since there are some really good team fits currently ranked in the teems, including DT Peter Woods, WR Carnell Tate, CBs Mansoor Delane and Jermod McCoy, Edge David Bailey, TE Kenyon Sadiq and even RB Jeremiyah Love.  But it would be a shame to miss out elite prospects like Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs or the opportunity for a a blockbuster trade offer from a QB-needy team.

Week 14 Rooting Guide

To take the hard work out of cheering for draft position, and let Commanders’ fans relax and enjoy a stress-free weekend of football, I have put together this handy rooting guide for Week 14.

Most Important Games

As I have stressed, it will not be enough for the Commanders to lose games to improve their draft position.  Teams ahead of them in the draft order will also have to win.  No matter how the Commanders do against the Vikings, there are plenty of other games this weekend with potential to help the Commanders in April.  A win by any of the following teams in bold will help the Commanders to optimize their draft position.

No matter what you think about the prospect of the Commanders losing, you can root for these teams to win with a clear conscience. And best of all, you don’t even have to face the ethical dilemma of cheering for the Giants, because they are on a bye.

Cleveland Browns (3-9) vs Tennessee Titans (1-11) – The Browns are just a good offense away from fielding a competitive football team.  While their offense ranks 31st in total yardage, their defense ranks 2nd in yards allowed.  Could a surprise breakout by Shedeur Sanders be the spark they need?  Let’s hope so. The Browns have an unassailable SOS advantage over the Commanders.  We need them to win at least one game to get ahead of them, and one more every time the Commanders win a game.  Meanwhile, the Titans are so far out in front, they aren’t even worth worrying about. Get off the porch and hunt!

Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) vs Denver Broncos (10-2) – The 2-10 Raiders are on a six game losing streak and facing the 10-2 Broncos.  If the Raiders somehow pull off the upset, they will fall behind the Commander by virtue of a much higher SOS.  It’s a long shot, but there’s usually at least one big upset every week.  Let’s hope this is it.  Just win baby!

New Orleans Saints (2-10) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) – If the Raiders falling past the Commanders is a longshot, the Saints falling behind them is wishing for the stars.  The Saints would need to win two more games than the Commanders for that to happen.  They say where there’s life, there’s hope. Unfortunately, there are not many signs of life on either side of the ball in The Big Easy. This one might be a job for Saint Jude Thaddeus, the Patron of Lost Causes. Cheer loudly. The Saints need all the help you can give them.  Who dat?

Other Important Games

Favorable outcomes in these games will assist the Commanders by mitigating threats from teams that are currently close behind them in the draft order.

New York Jets (3-9) vs Miami Dolphins (5-7) – The Jets did their part to improve the Commanders’ draft position last week by beating the Falcons.  But they are still too close for comfort.  At 3-9, they only trail the Commanders currently by virtue of the SOS tiebreak.  We need them to win a few more games down the stretch to give the Commanders some breathing room. This game and the Week 16 matchup with the Saints are the best chances on the Jets’ remaining schedule.  J-E-T-S, Jets! Jets! Jets!

Arizona Cardinals (3-9) vs Los Angeles Rams (9-3) – Hope that the Week 13 loss to the Panthers shook the Rams’ confidence.  Otherwise, these teams are heading in opposite directions.  The Cardinals have a big SOS disadvantage to the Commanders, so tie records will see the Commanders pick first.  But a Cardinals’ upset would help to build a buffer in case Washington wins another game. Rise Up Red Sea!

Atlanta Falcons (4-8) vs Seattle Seahawks (9-3) – The Falcons have one more win than the Commanders but have a weaker SOS. If they lose and the Commanders win, they will move ahead in the draft order. We need them to win a game, as unlikely as that may be this week. Rise up, dirty birds!

Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) @ Buffalo Bills (8-4) – The Bengals are close to level pegging with the Commanders in SOS. So their single win disadvantage gives the Commanders a tenuous lead in the draft order.  They need to win more games to build more distance from Washington.  Go kitties!

Other Week 14 Games

Outcomes of these games can help tip the battle for draft position in the Commanders’ favor by influencing the SOS of their rivals.

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) vs Indianapolis Colts (8-4) – The Jaguars are opponents of the Bengals and Jets, two of the Commanders’ closest competitors for draft position.  A Jaguars’ win increases those teams’ SOS, helping to establish some space from the Bengals and build the Commanders’ advantage over the Jets in tie-break situations.  DUUUVAL!

Chicago Bears (9-3) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) – This one is very close.  Both teams have the same number of games against Commander rivals Browns, Bengals, Giants, and Vikings.  And both are Commanders’ opponents.  What separates them is that the Bears are also opponents of Commanders rivals Raiders and Saints; while the Packers are opponents of the Cardinals. This means a Bears’ win has twice as much opportunity to help the Commanders win an SOS tiebreak.  Da Bears!

Kansas City Chiefs (6-6) vs Houston Texans (7-5) – Another close call.  Both teams play the Raiders, but the Chiefs play them twice.  The Chiefs also play Giants, who have a narrower SOS advantage over the Commanders than the Cardinals, who play the Texans.  A Chiefs’ win is ever so slightly more likely to benefit the Commanders than a Texans’ win.  Go Kermit!

Pick ‘em

LA Chargers (8-4) vs Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) – I think this is a draw with respect to potential impact on the Commanders’ draft position. Both teams play Washington and their draft position rival Giants, but the Eagles play them twice.  Both teams play the Raiders, but the Chargers play them twice.  Both teams play the Vikings.  It is possible that one team winning will advantage the Commanders, but it’s more or less impossible to guess which one that will be.  Coin flip, or root for a tie

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) vs Baltimore Ravens (6-6) – These teams are in the same division and play the same number of games against Commanders’ rivals for draft position: Browns x2, Bengals x2, Jets, Vikings.  I can’t see any way in which the outcome of this game affects Washington’s draft position. Your choice, doesn’t matter