The curious case of Luis Arráez

I’m sure you were expecting the exciting conclusion to my simulation as the Colorado Rockies general manager in Out of the Park Baseball. Unfortunately, with the holiday festivities last week, I just haven’t had the time to sit down and dive into the game. I do, however, have the time to continue my critically acclaimed (?) “Curious Case” series on this site.

As the real-life Hot Stove tries to warm up and media pundits play armchair GM, one name that has appeared multiple times as a hypothetical fit for the Rockies is Luis Arráez. A three-time batting champion and the elite contact specialist in the league, Arráez is going to be one of the more interesting free agents this offseason, and it begs the question: Is he a fit for the Rockies? Well, let’s put on our GM hats and look into it.

Originally signed out of Venezuela by the Minnesota Twins in 2013, Arráez rose to prominence in 2019 when he finished sixth in the Rookie of the Year voting. In 2022, he won his first batting title with Minnesota and was traded to Miami that offseason. He won a batting title again in 2023 and then went on to win a batting title in 2024 while also being traded to San Diego. 2025 was a down year for Arráez by his standards. In 154 games for the Padres, he had a career-low .292 AVG and .327 OBP, but still led the National League with 181 hits.

Aided by his methodical control of the bat, it’s understandable why writers such as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand figure the Rockies are a perfect fit for his services.

Compared to the 2025 Rockies, Arráez would have led the team in AVG by a good margin and also would have finished second in OBP just behind Tyler Freeman (for more on OBP check out Renee Dechert’s Rockpile from Tuesday). He also had 31 more hits than Hunter Goodman. What comes up as the biggest reason for him to sign with the Rockies is the team’s notable strikeout problems.

Colorado had the highest strikeout rate and lowest OPS of any team in the Majors. So, why not plug in a player that had a 3.5% strikeout rate last season — the lowest any hitter has had since Tony Gwynn in 1995. Arráez struck just 21 times in 675 plate appearances. The Rockies had 21 players with at least 21 strikeouts on the year with Blaine Crim striking out 22 times over 15 games. In 53 career plate appearances at Coors Field, Arráez has never struck out at Coors Field.

Arráez also doesn’t walk a ton, but the fact that his career walk rate is double that of his strike out rate is already an asset that could entice the Rockies.

But, obviously, contact is his forte. Arráez possesses the ability to spray the ball from line to line. His spray chart shows that he favors going the opposite way while what little power he has is to his pull side.

He also ranks in the 100th percentile in squaring up the ball and whiff rate. In his career, he has swung at 46.4% of pitches while making contact 93.6% of the time. It’s almost mind-boggling to comprehend just how efficient he is at putting the ball in play. How is he able to do it?

Well, part of it is rooted in his bat tracking. As I’m mentioned before, players with a slower bat speed and a shorter swing length typically will have a higher batting average while players with a high bat speed and longer swing will have more power along with strikeouts. Arráez averaged 62.6 mph in bat speed last season, quite a bit lower than the 71.7 mph league average. His swing length sits at 6.0 feet, a whole foot shorter than the league average.

So while there is little power for Arráez, the extremes he posseses on the spectrum make him a contact machine destined to be on base one way or another. His ability to get the bat to the ball also hasn’t exploded in an overabundance of groundballs as he sits at a 42.5% rate, which is just a few ticks higher than the league average 42.3%.

With an apparent opening at first base and a need to cut down on the swing-and-miss tendencies of the roster, Arráez could be a helpful piece for the Rockies young roster heading into the 2026.

But why should Paul DePodesta and the Rockies give pause?

Well, that’s what makes Arráez’s free agency so interesting. It’s going to a be a case study of what teams in the modern game of baseball value and percieve as value.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote, “Teams can’t help but see Arráez for everything he isn’t. Like, a passable defender. Or a source of power. Or even a halfway decent baserunner.”

MLB.com’s Mike Petriello chimed in, “It all goes to show that teams will look at the total package, and not just “do you make contact,” because we’re talking about baseball players, not strikeout-avoiders.“

Therein lies the predicament for Arráez. Sure, he makes a ton contact, but is one player enough to move the needle for the rest of a lineup that strikes out too much? What good is his ability to get hits if he is the one always being stranded or hitting with too few players on the bases?

There is an argument to be had that he hasn’t quite been deployed properly in the lineup. Arráez has typically spent his time in the top two spots of the lineup. While team’s are increasingly more likely to place their top hitters in the two-hole, Arráez was regularly hitting there for the Padres this last season and had the fourth-most plate appearances in the league there.

The results weren’t all that shining as the Padres two-hole hitters ranked:

• First in strikeout rate

• Tied for last in runs scored

• Next-to-last in RBIs

• Fourth-to-last in OBP

• Third-to-last in SLG

As Petriello argues, “Mostly, it didn’t set up Arráez to succeed based on his skillset, because a low-powered bat who doesn’t get on base that often just shouldn’t be hitting second or leading off, as he did 11 additional times.”

Ben Clemens of FanGraphs pointed out last year that the notion that “a hit is better than a walk” is inheriently flawed, especially because a hit is often meaningless with no one on base. Nearly 56% of Arráez’s plate appearances last season came with no one on base. Petriello goes on to theorize that Arráez would be better placed hitting third, with hopefully better hitters in front of him to be on base, or lower in the lineup where he is getting fewer plate appearances all together.

There is also the fact that Arráez has little to no power. He hit a career-high 10 home runs back in 2022, but typcially sits in the four to eight range. His slugging is bouyed by the doubles he can collect, but home runs are more valued in baseball in this day and age.

Of course, we also have to take into account his bad fielding and liability on the bases. He has been scored with a -5 Fielding Run Value, -9 Outs Above Average due to his poor range, -9 Batting Run Value, -1 Baserunning Run Value, and has an average sprint speed of 26.5 feet per second.

Perhaps there are things that DePodesta values more as the Rockies enter a new era, but would they be even willing to pay the asking price? Arráez is projected to earn $14.1 million annually on a deal in the two-to-three-year range, which seems too much money for a such a one-note player, especially for the rebuilding Rockies.

All in all, there is certianly value and solid reasoning to add Arráez but the price and fit has to be right. A team has to have the right tools and philosophy to get the most out production out of him. If this was a different era of baseball he would be a hot commodity, but the reality is he was born to play in a different time.

Could the Rockies go after him and get some value? Sure, but they may be better served just saving the money and teaching Tyler Freeman how to play first base.

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