Getting to know Devin Williams

The free agent market was slow to start this offseason, much as it is every year. Very few splashes came before Thanksgiving, with not very many rumors floating around. But just a few days after Thanksgiving, the Mets made their first splash, signing star reliever Devin Williams to a contract worth more than $51 million for three years. It’s the second time in two seasons that the Mets signed a former Yankees reliever. But unlike when they signed Clay Holmes last offseason, they won’t be undertaking the task of converting him to a starter. Instead Williams will be looked at to carry the load of a potentially Díaz-less backend of the bullpen.

Devin Williams made a name for himself in the first half of the decade as the star reliever of the Milwaukee Brewers. He sports a nasty changeup, the ‘airbender,‘ which has produced a +7 run value or better all but one season since 2020, with four seasons having a double digit run value. While Met fans might remember him as the pitcher who gave up the Wild Card series winning home run to Pete Alonso in 2024, but he has been so much better than that singular moment for most of his career.

Over the course of his career, he has had a 2.45 ERA, 465 strikeouts and 86 saves. In 297.2 innings pitched he has a 14.1 K/9, 1.045 WHIP, and a 172 ERA+. All that has combined to 8.7 bWAR over the course of his career. He’s a two-time All-Star, winning Rookie of the Year in the National League in the COVID-shortened 2020 season and receiving down-ballot MVP votes in both 2020 and 2023.

That 2020 season, his rookie year, was the best of his career. He threw 27 innings across 22 games, with a minuscule 0.33 ERA and 53 strikeouts, which amounted to an astronomical 17.7 K/9. His ERA+ was 1,375 and in just 27 innings he accrued 1.3 bWAR. He received 14 of the 30 first place votes, besting Alec Bohm and Jake Cronenworth for Rookie of the Year.

His best full season was in 2023, where he tallied 36 saves and 58.2 innings in 61 games. He had a 1.53 ERA, with 87 strikeouts and a 0.920 WHIP. He had a 13.3 K/9 and a 282 ERA+, his best in a full season. He compiled 2.6 bWAR, was named an All-Star for the second straight year, and received a couple of MVP votes, putting him tied for 19th.

The last couple years have been something of a struggle for Devin Williams. While Williams had good numbers in 2024, having a 1.25 ERA and accruing 1.4 bWAR, it was a bit of a lost season for Williams. He started the season on the injured list with a stress fracture in his back, and he didn’t come back until the very end of July, missing the entire first half of the season.

Williams’ 2025 season was famously a struggle. Before the season started, he was traded to the Yankees for pitcher Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin. Williams challenged the Yankees’ archaic facial hair rule and won, allowing him to don a beard. But that victory before the season preceded a season of ups and downs, where he had a 4.79 ERA in 62 innings, with a below average 85 ERA+ and -0.3 bWAR. He still had 90 strikeouts, the second highest tally of his career.

Looking under the hood of last season, Williams actually wasn’t as bad as those baseline stats might suggest. He was in the top 3% of K% in MLB, top 5% in expected batting average, and the top 8% of expected slugging percentage, giving credence to the idea that WIlliams was perhaps victim to some unluckiness in his appearances. His changeup had a +7 run value, and his four-seam fastball had a +2 run value. He also was 99th percentile in whiff percentage and 97th percentile in chase percentage, overall being 78th percentile in pitching run value.

The Mets have signed another embattled Yankees reliever. Last season it was Holmes, and this time Devin Williams. Prior success makes it seem more likely that Williams might be able to recapture former glory and find success in Queens. Hopefully, the strong Mets pitching apparatus will be able to help bring him back to what made him successful in the past and allow Williams to help provide stability in the Mets bullpen for the future. The Mets could use some stability, especially after last season’s woes.