KANSAS CITY, MO - AUGUST 22: Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) scrambles during a preseason game against the Kansas City Chiefs on August 22, 2025, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)Marshall GershonThu, January 15, 2026 at 1:18 AM UTC·2 min readFTN’s NFL Divisional Round Bet of the Week is powered by our advanced model that simulates every game 10,000 times.
Find this week’s top edge, complete with true odds and expert analysis.
FTN’s NFL Bet of the Week: Bears/Rams Over 48.5
The model projects a strong lean to the over in the matchup between the Rams and Bears, with the over hitting in 65% of our simulations.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Rams-Bears matchup sets up as one of the best over spots of the weekend, with both offenses positioned to exploit defensive weaknesses on the other side. Los Angeles enters with an offense playing at an elite level behind Matthew Stafford and now faces a Chicago defense that ranks 24th in pass DVOA and just allowed Jordan Love to post the best EPA per dropback of any quarterback last week. On the other side, Chicago’s offense is far more dangerous than its season-long numbers suggest, ranking seventh in explosive pass rate and third in rushing DVOA since Week 12, while the Rams’ defense has slipped badly, allowing the sixth-highest rate of explosive pass plays and ranking just 22nd in defensive DVOA since Week 13. With both teams capable of creating chunk plays and sustaining drives, and with this game projected to stay tight into the fourth quarter, the setup points to a back-and-forth, high-scoring game that makes Over 48.5 the clear bet.
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