Thinking Through the Blue Jays Off-Season (Part 1)

For the last few years, I’ve run a series in late November or early December looking at the Blue Jays off-season and trying to work through what I would do if I were the GM. As we established last week, it’s a good thing I’m not. It’s still a fun exercise, though. In previous years this series was based around the annual off-season sim run by the Max Rieper and the good folks at Royals Review. They haven’t been able to run it the past couple of years, but I still find working through what my plan would have been for the exercise to be worthwhile.

Today, I’m going to look at the current roster and formulate a shopping list. Tomorrow, we’ll go over payroll and assets, and then next week I’ll look at some potential moves.

The Lineup

Catcher: Alejandro Kirk had a phenomenal season, with elite D and a 116 wRC+. He also dominated the basepaths with a 100% stolen base success rate (on how many attempts? Never mind). He’s a star. Tyler Heineman also had a stunning year, posting a 120 wRC+ with strong glove work. He won’t repeat, and with him turning 35 in June there’s real downside risk. If he does fall off a cliff, though, Brandon Valenzuela ought to be ready to fill the all-glove-no-bat backup role. Catcher is set.

First Base: Call me in 2040. It’s Vlad.

Second Base: Many options here. Andres Gimenez is the incumbent, but he may be needed elsewhere. Ernie Clement could be a great glove option if they decide to go for more offence at third, and Leo Jimenez will also be back to compete after injuries wiped out most of his 2025. Davis Schneider is likely to get some reps when they want to go bat-first, and Josh Kasevich may be a factor if he returns healthy from his own injury-ruined season. Multiple viable options, no need to seek an addition.

Shortstop: Open for the first time in seven years. Gimenez is probably the best candidate to handle it every day, although Clement, Jimenez and Kasevich could all fit into the mix. All are major defensive upgrades and major offensive downgrades from Bo Bichette. Like second, options but nobody locked in.

Third Base: Belonged primarily to Ernie Clement last year, but if the infield mix stays as-is he’ll probably play more at short and second. Addison Barger doesn’t grade out great here defensively, but he’s OK, and his bat is enough to more than make up for it. He can also play right, though. Not an acute need, but if they want to add an infielder this is the easiest spot.

Outfield: Daulton Varsho was excellent when he was healthy this year. He’s always been durable in the past, so hopefully he plays 130+ games again in ’26. Anthony Santander’s contract will guarantee him first dibs in right. Nathan Lukes has proven himself a real MLB player and fringe starter, but at 31 it may not be for long. Myles Straw brings sterling glove work, Davis Schneider offers a bat-first option, and Joey Loperfido does a little of both off the bench. Jonatan Clase is also in the picture and out of options. This backup group probably deserves more PA than there are to go around, but none are locks to be future full-time starters. They could try to upgrade in one or the other corner. A consolidation trade might also make sense as the team sorts through an excess of depth and tries to find long term solutions.

Designated Hitter: George Springer has a lock on the primary DH role. He can play some right field too, but at his age and with his health that should be an emergency option. Santander might get reps here too when they want to prioritize outfield defence, and there are always starters who need a day mostly off their feet. The Jays don’t really have a need or room for a pure DH addition.

The Pitching Staff

Rotation: Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber are an effective 1-2 punch, but both are in their walk years. Jose Berrios is locked up through 2028, but he’ll need a bounce back season in 2026 or he looks more like a #5 than a #3 going forward. Trey Yesavage is the #3 of the present and maybe the #1 of the future. In terms of depth, Eric Lauer should be a trustworthy swingman. Lower down, Bowden Francis should be ready for opening day and Jake Bloss will be back mid-season, but both have work to do to be trusted with an MLB rotation spot if the team’s contending. Ricky Tiedemann is a total wildcard, and while it would be great if he forced his way into the conversation this season, they can’t count on it. There’s a clear need for one starter, and it should be at least a quality #4.

Bullpen: Jeff Hoffman didn’t deliver the season the team hoped for when they gave him $30m last winter, but he was nails in the playoffs and will hold onto his closing job at least to start. Louis Varland disappointed somewhat after the haul the Jays gave up for him at the deadline, but his underlying metrics suggest he can be the long-term setup man they hoped for. Braydon Fisher was a revelation and factors into the setup mix. Yimi Garcia should be back from his elbow cleanup surgery by spring training and will also be a leverage guy. Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty are OK as a lefty duo, but were inconsistent in 2025. Eric Lauer starts here as a long man unless there’s a rotation injury. There will be a fight for the last spot, with Tommy Nance and Yariel Rodriguez both having viable cases and 2025 Rule 5 Draft pick Angel Bastardo looking to be healthy and needing to either make the roster or be offered back to the Red Sox. Every single team wants more and better relievers, but the Jays don’t need to spend here.

Summary and Shopping List

The overall conclusion is that they don’t need to do a lot this season. As of right now, Fangraphs’ depth charts have them as the sixth best roster in baseball, trailing only the Yankees and Mariners in the American League. Of course, many of the teams around them will get a lot better over the next couple of months, as free agents are snapped up and bad teams trade their stars. There is some work to do:

• A starting pitcher is the only must.

• A starting outfield upgrade wouldn’t go amiss.

• Trading from the outfield depth to bolster the pitching depth would improve overall roster balance.

• If they can find the change, a bullpen upgrade. Ideally a more consistent lefty specialist.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at the resources available as I try to stay ahead of the division rivals.