NFL “STEP Differential” Week 12 2025

Welcome back to STEP Differential. STEP stands for Sack + Turnover(x2) + Explosive Play Differential. Make sure you’re flipping through pages 2-5 to see everything broken out by component and the overall performance of the STEP Differential in individual games. I recently had someone pull individual game data for me going all the way back to 1999. I plan on publishing an in-depth piece but the first takeaway is that winning the STEP Differential has a positive effect consistent with the last two seasons with just over an 81% winning percentage. Winning STEP Differential by two or more pumps that number up to almost 85%. Infogram below:

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NFL STEP Differential w/BreakdownsInfogram

We had a couple of victories that defied STEP Differential with the Chiefs comeback win / Colts collapse at a -7 for the Chiefs. The Lions also defied odds (-4) by coming back against the Giants. Both of those games needed overtime to decide the outcome. The third overtime game also went against the grain with the Jaguars winning that one with a -2 STEP Differential. I don’t know that I can draw any conclusions more than “that’s interesting” but three overtime games in one week and all of them defied STEP. The Texans moved way up overall with their +10 effort, best of the week, against the Buffalo Bills.

Atlanta appears poised to be this year’s outlier. Their +33 STEP Differential is currently tied for 4th while their record has them well under water. Going back through the history over the last 20 plus years, there is usually a team or two like this that fundamentally outperforms their opponents but keeps losing close games. Falcons, and to a lesser extent, the Browns appear to be headed in that direction.

Your Chicago Bears are 8-1 when they win the STEP Differential with the loss being the Week 1 collapse against Minnesota. Chicago’s formula continues to work and with returning defensive starters reinforcing the defense, their formula may improve as they hit a difficult stretch. Chicago sits at +36 STEP Differential, good for third in the league. They play the Eagles (0), Packers twice (+33), Browns (+4), 49ers (-20), and Lions (+28).