Thanksgiving Talking Points: Debunking Hurricanes Haters’ Dumb Arguments

Death, taxes, and holiday drama. It’s inevitable for Thanksgiving day arguments to start not long after opening pleasantries are exchanged and the first beer or whiskey or coquito is finished. Barbs and insults are flung around the dining table (or la caja china) usually instigated by some political commentary or the family matriarch expressing disapproval of a younger family member’s appearance or dating decisions.

This year, Miami fans can add college football playoff ranking controversy to the potential topics of Thanksgiving disagreements. Those that think Miami is ‘clearly’ not worthy of a playoff bid tend to regurgitate the same, tired sounding points from the shills on ESPN who value their SEC ratings over logic. Consider this your preparation to rebut the most common, and ludicrous, arguments from Miami haters this holiday.

Dumb Argument No. 1: Miami’s Head-to-Head Against Notre Dame Doesn’t Count Because it Was Week 1

Yes, Notre Dame was starting a new QB, but so was Miami…and unlike virtually every other new or transfer QB in the nation, Beck had to sit out spring practice because of injury.

Miami was also starting an entirely new receiving corps and a rebuilt defensive secondary, while Notre Dame had one of the most veteran secondaries in the nation as well as what may be the Heisman trophy winner in its backfield. Miami’s 17 yr-old freshman (Toney) and LSU throw-away (Daniels) torched the Irish’s veteran secondary, while Miami’s defensive line held Love to just 33 rushing yards on 10 rushing attempts.

All that aside – Week 1 games are not pre-season exhibition matches. Sure, teams evolve as the season progresses but not that much. Here’s CJ Carr’s stat line against Miami common opponents:

• (11/22) vs. Syracuse: 5/9 for 49 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

• (11/15) at Pitt: 21/32 for 212 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

• (10/11) vs. NC ST: 17/30 for 186 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

• (8/31) at Miami: 19/30 for 221 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Compare that to Beck:

• (11/29) at Pitt: TBD

• (11/15) vs. NC ST: 21/27, 297 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

• (11/8) vs. Syracuse: 18/24 for 247 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

• (8/31) vs. Notre Dame: 20/30 for 205 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

Beck has been appreciably better than Carr the whole season against apples-to-apples competition, including games in November. There’s been no magical progression for Carr, or regression for Beck.

If Miami was to play Notre Dame today, the two teams would not be appreciably different than the teams that faced off on Labor Day weekend.

Dumb Argument No. 2: Miami Has the Worst Loss(es)

Miami lost by 4 points to (7-4) Louisville and in overtime to (8-3) SMU. By comparison:

• Alabama lost by 14 points to (5-6) Florida State, and was down 24-7 midway through the Third Quarter. Miami beat the Seminoles on the same Doak Campbell field just a few weeks later in Tallahassee.

• Oklahoma lost by 17 points to (8-3) Texas in a game that John Mateer threw zero touchdowns and three interceptions and the Sooners were shut-out in the second half. Miami was still driving for the lead on its final possession against Louisville despite a similarly bad outing by Beck.

• Utah and BYU lost to (10-1) Texas Tech by 24 and 22 points, respectively. The Red Raiders are a very good, playoff worthy team, but teams like Miami and Notre Dame are not getting blown out by anyone. Have either of these teams travel to Georgia or Ole Miss or Notre Dame or whatever and you can expect a lop-sided affair not unlike every game in last-year’s CFP first round. Same goes for Vanderbilt who lost by 16 points to Alabama.

Louisville and SMU are competitive, bowl-bound teams. SMU might even make the playoffs in back-to-back years if they get into the ACC Championship game. SMU and Louisville are certainly on par with Iowa (who Indiana barely survived) and South Carolina (who Texas A&M barely survived) and Florida (who Georgia barely survived), and they’re better than Florida State (who Alabama did not survive). Miami ended up on the wrong-side of these games, but nobody has or will dog-walk Miami to an uncompetitive beat-down.

Put another way, it’s not just who you lose to but how you lost. Miami does not have the worst losses amongst the log-jammed, at-large bid seeking teams.

Dumb Argument No. 3: Miami’s Strength of Schedule/Record is Weaker

What makes a strong strength of schedule or strength or record? Everyone points to ESPN’s FPI rankings for the following:

• CFP No. 5 Texas Tech: Strength of Schedule (“SoS”) – 56; Strength of Record (“SoR”) – 9

• CFP No. 6 Oregon: SoS – 24; SoR – 5

• CFP No. 7 Ole Miss: SoS – 33; SoR – 7

• CFP No. 8 Oklahoma: SoS – 5; SoR – 8.

• CFP No. 9 Notre Dame: SoS – 34; SoR – 12

• CFP No. 10 Alabama: SoS – 9; SoR – 9

• CFP No. 11 BYU: SoS – 27; SoR – 6

• CFP No. 12 Miami: SoS – 48; SoR – 15

• CFP No. 13 Utah: SoS – 55; SoR – 17

• CFP No. 14 Vanderbilt: SoS – 26; SoR – 26

These stats exist almost entirely on the self-fulfilling prophecy that the SEC is just that much better. Every SEC team started in the top 40 of FPI ranking and is still no worse than Mississippi St. (No. 48). Every SEC team has a SoS of no worse than 33 (Ole Miss) because they all play an SEC schedule. The result is that every two-loss SEC team earns a higher SoR and SoS rating than the two-loss, even one-loss, teams in other conferences.

Consider that the objectively worst SEC team (2-9) Arkansas, who’s only wins are Alabama A&M and Arkansas St., has an FPI ranking of No. 37. Arkansas has a higher FPI ranking than CFP ranked teams Virginia (45), Georgia Tech (47), and Tulane (55) as well as AP ranked North Texas (42). Heck, Arkansas has a better FPI than (8-3) Memphis (46) who beat Arkansas.

There is no WAY that Arkansas is the 37th strongest team in the nation (they should frankly be in the 70-80 range), but the SEC gets SoS credit like they are the 37th strongest team in the nation. And then because every SEC team is considered a rank or near-ranked team, the whole conference’s strength of schedule rises while teams in the other conferences have significantly worse strength of schedules.

But wait, you can hear the gas bag retort now…

Wait for it…hold for dramatic effect.

…

bUt ThE sEc WiNs ItS nOnCoNfErEnCe GaMeS!!!!

…

Setting aside SEC losses like Ohio St. v. Texas, Alabama v. FSU, Miami v. Florida, the aforementioned Arkansas v. Memphis, etc… when did the SEC win all those non-conference games? When did LSU beat Clemson, and Oklahoma beat Michigan, and Tennessee beat Syracuse (lol that this is a “good win”), and Auburn beat Baylor, and Mississippi St. beat Arizona State…

That’s right, those all occurred in the first two weeks of the season when teams are playing most of their non-conference games. So I guess Week 1/2 games count for something after all!

The truth is that the SEC has taken a step-back from the last two decades of admitted dominance. No SEC team played for a national title in either 2023 or 2024. Last year, Texas needed overtime to get past Arizona State and be the SEC’s lone rep in the semi-finals, only to get crushed by Ohio State. There’s a strong argument that no SEC team deserved to be in the Top 5 last year.

Point being, the SEC is angling to have 5+ teams in the playoffs (i.e. half the spots) because they say they play in the toughest conference. But why do they play in the toughest conference? Because ESPN, their premier media partner, and the majority of their talking heads say so. Would Alabama have better than a 2 loss record in the ACC? Probably not – we know they’d at least would had lost to Florida State.

Dumb Argument No. 4: Notre Dame Beat Syracuse Worse Than Miami Beat Syracuse

Both teams comfortably beat the Orange, so picking apart the margin is a stupid exercise. Miami fans can play that game too:

• Notre Dame led NC State just 10-7 at halftime whereas Miami led NC State 24-0 at the half.

• Notre Dame was up only 12-7 at halftime against (1-10) Boston College, and ultimately won by just 15 points against the ACC’s worst team.

• Notre Dame beat Boise St. by 21 points, but USF beat Boise St. by 27 points, and of course Miami destroyed USF.

The whole “style points” game is asinine. It should matter if you won comfortably or not, or if you lost by a close margin or a not-close margin, but beyond that it doesn’t tell us much.

Dumb Argument No. 5: BYU is Getting Hosed With Only One Loss

Maybe, but BYU also has a direct path to the playoffs that most other bubble teams do not. Win the next two games and the Cougars get the Big XII’s automatic bid. BYU fans – save your outrage until you have something to be outraged about.

Dumb Argument No. 6: ____ Team Meets ‘the Eye Test’ and Miami Does Not

A variation of this argument is “if ____ played Miami today on a neutral field they would be favored to beat the Hurricanes.”

The SEC and Notre Dame remain undefeated in hypothetical matchups.

What more do you want from Miami in terms of eye test? The Hurricanes have three projected NFL Draft first round players according to Mel Kiper Jr., including the top offensive lineman in Francis Mauigoa (No. 9), and the top two defense ends in Reuben Bain Jr. (No. 15) and Akheem Mesidor (No. 18). Mel Kiper also projects at least QB Carson Beck (No. 6 QB) and CB Keionte Scott (No. 10 CB) to be draft selections.

That’s not counting underclassmen stars like WR Malachi Toney and DL Justin Scott. Toney is likely to sweep every freshman award available considering that he leads all freshman in receiving yards and receptions, in addition to his punt return, rushing, and even passing accomplishments.

If anything, Miami passes the eye test way better than teams like Texas A&M, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss who have no projected first round draft picks, and teams like Alabama, Texas Tech, Notre Dame, and Utah who have just one projected first round pick. Only Ohio State and Oregon have three projected first round picks, like Miami.

Miami’s roster has elite, NFL talent. Miami has a great win plus several other good wins, which hopefully includes at Pitt after Saturday. Miami has no bad losses – i.e. no blowout losses and no losses to really bad teams. That’s the resume of a playoff contender.