Steve HelwickTue, November 25, 2025 at 5:32 AM UTC·9 min readWelcome to the world of divsionless superconferences. Even with one week left in the regular season, many conference championship pictures are less clear than a moving photograph taken on a Motorola Razr in 2006.
Perhaps the most confusing championship race in the country belongs to the Mid-American Conference. Heading into the final week of action, there are five teams alive. Western Michigan leads the pack with a 6-1 conference record, and four teams share the second-place spot with identical 5-2 marks — Ohio, Toledo, Central Michigan, and Miami (OH).
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWe planned to issue a piece this week featuring every possible tiebreaker scenario, but our friends at the MAC offices decided to take matters into their own hands on Monday and make our job easier. The MAC issued 16 potential scenarios for Week 14, and those scenarios can create seven different MAC Championship Game matchups.
First, let’s look at the relevant Week 14 matchups featuring contenders:
Tuesday, Nov. 25 at 7:30 p.m. ET — Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan (ESPN2)
Friday, Nov. 28 at 12:00 p.m. ET — Ohio @ Buffalo (ESPNU)
Saturday, Nov. 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET — Ball State @ Miami (OH) (CBS Sports Network)
Saturday, Nov. 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET — Toledo @ Central Michigan (ESPN+)
Because Western Michigan already has six wins, and Toledo and Central Michigan are each 5-2 and play on Saturday, both teams in the MAC Championship Game must be at least 6-2 in conference play.
Note, there are several tiebreakers that are unclear, because if there is a lack of a head-to-head matchup and teams produced identical records against common opponents, the Team Rating metric via SportSource Analytics is then called upon as a tiebreaker. With one week still in the books, these Team Rating scores are not finalized, so an asterisk (*) is used below to highlight these scenarios.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNow, let’s take a look at all 16 scenarios:
Scenario 1MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (7-1) vs. Toledo (6-2)
What has to happen:
Western Michigan (7-1) defeats Eastern Michigan
Buffalo defeats Ohio (5-3)
Miami (6-2) defeats Ball State
Toledo (6-2) defeats Central Michigan (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan is 7-1. Toledo wins head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami at 6-2.
Scenario 2MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (7-1) vs. Miami (OH) (6-2)
What has to happen:
Western Michigan (7-1) defeats Eastern Michigan
Ohio (6-2) defeats Buffalo
Miami (6-2) defeats Ball State
Toledo (6-2) defeats Central Michigan (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan is 7-1. Miami wins three-way tiebreaker over Toledo and Ohio at 6-2 due to superior record vs. common opponents (Ball State, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan).
Scenario 3MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (7-1) vs. Miami (OH) (6-2)
What has to happen:
Western Michigan (7-1) defeats Eastern Michigan
Buffalo defeats Ohio (5-3)
Miami (6-2) defeats Ball State
Central Michigan (6-2) defeats Toledo (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan is 7-1. Miami wins tiebreaker over Central Michigan at 6-2 due to superior record vs. common opponents (Akron, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Toledo, Western Michigan).
Scenario 4MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (7-1) vs. Miami (OH) (6-2)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWhat has to happen:
Western Michigan (7-1) defeats Eastern Michigan
Ohio (6-2) defeats Buffalo
Miami (6-2) defeats Ball State
Central Michigan (6-2) defeats Toledo (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan is 7-1. Miami wins three-way tiebreaker over Central Michigan and Ohio at 6-2 due to superior record vs. common opponents (Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan).
Scenario 5MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (7-1) vs. Toledo (6-2)
What has to happen:
Western Michigan (7-1) defeats Eastern Michigan
Buffalo defeats Ohio (5-3)
Ball State defeats Miami (5-3)
Toledo (6-2) defeats Central Michigan (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan is 7-1. Toledo is the only 6-2 team.
Scenario 6MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (7-1) vs. Toledo* (6-2)
What has to happen:
Western Michigan (7-1) defeats Eastern Michigan
Ohio (6-2) defeats Buffalo
Ball State defeats Miami (5-3)
Toledo (6-2) defeats Central Michigan (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan is 7-1. Toledo and Ohio cannot solve tiebreaker through head-to-head or common opponents. Thus, Toledo wins tiebreaker over Ohio at 6-2 due to higher Team Rating from SportSource Analytics, as of Nov. 24, 2025, although that is subject to change.
Scenario 7MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (7-1) vs. Central Michigan (6-2)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWhat has to happen:
Western Michigan (7-1) defeats Eastern Michigan
Buffalo defeats Ohio (5-3)
Ball State defeats Miami (5-3)
Central Michigan (6-2) defeats Toledo (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan is 7-1. Central Michigan is the only 6-2 team.
Scenario 8MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (7-1) vs. Ohio* (6-2)
What has to happen:
Western Michigan (7-1) defeats Eastern Michigan
Ohio (6-2) defeats Buffalo
Ball State defeats Miami (5-3)
Central Michigan (6-2) defeats Toledo (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan is 7-1. Ohio and Central Michigan cannot solve tiebreaker through head-to-head or common opponents. Thus, Ohio wins tiebreaker over Central Michigan at 6-2 due to higher Team Rating from SportSource Analytics, as of Nov. 24, 2025, although that is subject to change.
Scenario 9MAC Championship Game: Toledo* (6-2) vs. Miami (OH)* (6-2)
What has to happen:
Eastern Michigan defeats Western Michigan (6-2)
Buffalo defeats Ohio (5-3)
Miami (6-2) defeats Ball State
Toledo (6-2) defeats Central Michigan (5-3)
Why:
Miami, Toledo, and Western Michigan cannot solve first two tiebreakers as all went 1-1 round robin and all produced the same record against common opponents. Thus, Toledo wins tiebreaker at 6-2 due to highest Team Rating from SportSource Analytics, as of Nov. 24, 2025, although that is subject to change. To decide the second spot between Miami and Western Michigan at 6-2, Miami wins due to head-to-head tiebreaker.
Scenario 10MAC Championship Game: Toledo* (6-2) vs. Miami (OH)* (6-2)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWhat has to happen:
Eastern Michigan defeats Western Michigan (6-2)
Ohio (6-2) defeats Buffalo
Miami (6-2) defeats Ball State
Toledo (6-2) defeats Central Michigan (5-3)
Why:
This is a four-way tie at 6-2. Miami, Toledo, Western Michigan produced a better record against common opponents than Ohio, thus removing Ohio from the tiebreaker. To settle the resulting three-way tiebreaker, Toledo wins due to highest Team Rating from SportSource Analytics, as of Nov. 24, 2025, although that is subject to change. To decide the second spot between Miami and Western Michigan at 6-2, Miami wins due to head-to-head tiebreaker.
Scenario 11MAC Championship Game: Central Michigan (6-2) vs. Miami (OH) (6-2)
What has to happen:
Eastern Michigan defeats Western Michigan (6-2)
Buffalo defeats Ohio (5-3)
Miami (6-2) defeats Ball State
Central Michigan (6-2) defeats Toledo (5-3)
Why:
Central Michigan wins three-way tiebreaker over Miami and Western Michigan at 6-2 due to superior record vs. common opponents (Eastern Michigan, Toledo). To decide the second spot between Miami and Western Michigan at 6-2, Miami wins due to head-to-head tiebreaker.
Scenario 12MAC Championship Game: Miami (OH) (6-2) vs. Ohio* (6-2)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWhat has to happen:
Eastern Michigan defeats Western Michigan (6-2)
Ohio (6-2) defeats Buffalo
Miami (6-2) defeats Ball State
Central Michigan (6-2) defeats Toledo (5-3)
Why:
This is a four-way tie at 6-2. Central Michigan, Miami, Ohio produced a better record against common opponents than Western Michigan, thus removing Western Michigan from the tiebreaker. To settle the resulting three-way tiebreaker, Miami wins due to superior record vs. common opponents (Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan). To settle the resulting two-way tiebreaker, Ohio wins over Central Michigan due to higher Team Rating from SportSource Analytics, as of Nov. 24, 2025, although that is subject to change.
Scenario 13MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (6-2) vs. Toledo (6-2)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWhat has to happen:
Eastern Michigan defeats Western Michigan (6-2)
Buffalo defeats Ohio (5-3)
Ball State defeats Miami (5-3)
Toledo (6-2) defeats Central Michigan (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan and Toledo are the only 6-2 teams.
Scenario 14MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (6-2) vs. Toledo* (6-2)
What has to happen:
Eastern Michigan defeats Western Michigan (6-2)
Ohio (6-2) defeats Buffalo
Ball State defeats Miami (5-3)
Toledo (6-2) defeats Central Michigan (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan wins three-way tiebreaker over Ohio and Toledo at 6-2 due to defeating both. To settle the resulting two-way tiebreaker, Toledo wins over Ohio due to higher Team Rating from SportSource Analytics, as of Nov. 24, 2025, although that is subject to change.
Scenario 15MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (6-2) vs. Central Michigan (6-2)
What has to happen:
Eastern Michigan defeats Western Michigan (6-2)
Buffalo defeats Ohio (5-3)
Ball State defeats Miami (5-3)
Central Michigan (6-2) defeats Toledo (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan and Central Michigan are the only 6-2 teams.
Scenario 16MAC Championship Game: Western Michigan (6-2) vs. Ohio* (6-2)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWhat has to happen:
Eastern Michigan defeats Western Michigan (6-2)
Ohio (6-2) defeats Buffalo
Ball State defeats Miami (5-3)
Central Michigan (6-2) defeats Toledo (5-3)
Why:
Western Michigan wins three-way tiebreaker over Ohio and Central Michigan at 6-2 due to defeating both. To settle the resulting two-way tiebreaker, Ohio wins over Central Michigan due to higher Team Rating from SportSource Analytics, as of Nov. 24, 2025, although that is subject to change.
To summarize, we can get the following MAC Championship Games:
Western Michigan vs. Toledo (Scenarios 1, 5, 6, 13, 14)
Western Michigan vs. Miami (OH) (Scenarios 2, 3, 4)
Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan (Scenarios 7, 15)
Western Michigan vs. Ohio (Scenarios 8, 16)
Toledo vs. Miami (OH) (Scenarios 9, 10)
Central Michigan vs. Miami (OH) (Scenario 11)
Miami (OH) vs. Ohio (Scenario 12)
There are several MAC Championship matchups we cannot get, based on the current Team Rating scores:
Central Michigan vs. Ohio
Central Michigan vs. Toledo
Ohio vs. Toledo
Now, we let the Thanksgiving week MACtion begin, and we’ll see the two teams that emerge at Ford Field in Detroit on Saturday, Dec. 6 at 12 p.m. ET for the MAC Championship Game.
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