No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan Wolverines Preview: 2,191 days

For the fourth time in five years, the Michigan Wolverines head into the final week of the season with everything to play for. The past four seasons saw the Ohio State Buckeyes come into this showdown ranked No. 2 nationally, yet each of those four contests resulted in a Michigan win. Two of those losses still sent Ohio State to the College Football Playoff, and that would be the case again for the Buckeyes, who are ranked No. 1 this time around like they were over 2,000 days ago — the last time they won in this rivalry.

We like patterns, we like symmetry, but it is so difficult to know if any of that even matters in games like this. Vegas favors the visitors by about 10 points, which feels fair given how both teams have played up to this point, but in this decade, that has mattered very little. Michigan has not shown its ceiling yet but is playing well heading into this weekend, and now has a chance to force its way into the CFP. The stakes are extraordinary, as they should be when The Game is played. Here we go.

Date & Time: Saturday, Nov. 29, 12 p.m. ETLocation: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MITV/Streaming: FOX

Sherrone Moore will need to take elements from each of the past four wins to make it five straight this weekend. 2021 was the foundation, as Michigan dominated both trenches. 2022 was “just five plays,” and again this offense is going to need some home runs. 2023 was close throughout, with the Wolverines finding ways to just do a little bit more. And 2024 showed the imbalance in the mental sides of this rivalry, which should be alive and well on Saturday.

Offense: This could actually work

SP+ has the Michigan offense just 45th (and the Ohio State defense 1st), but the last couple weeks do give some optimism on this side of the ball. Even with the Northwestern interceptions, Bryce Underwood has looked more confident and competent, and the rapid breakout of Andrew Marsh gives him the reliability he needs in tough situations. The rest of the pass catchers may not be consistently explosive, but remember that J.J. McCarthy put up just 148 passing yards in 2023.

The Buckeye defense is loaded all over, so expect Michigan to trust its run game more than the freshman quarterback. The offensive line is arguably this season’s most pleasant surprise, but it will have to have its game of the year, especially with Jordan Marshall not 100 percent and Bryson Kuzdzal’s greenness. Just two teams have surpassed 3.1 YPC against the Buckeyes, but that still feels like the more viable option, as the secondary is best in the nation at 5.1 YPA through the air.

One way the Michigan offense can be successful is to score efficiently vs. trying to drive the entire field against this defense. If interceptions can set up the offense in instant red-zone opportunities like the last two years, that would be great, but it will also need to get a few timely explosive plays, uniquely via the ground game. No team in the country has more runs of 50-plus (8); while the Ohio State defense has allowed the fewest plays of 30 yards or more this season, the Wolverines must find a way to break off some long runs if they are going to score.

The other key is Underwood doing everything in his ability to keep the chains moving. Certainly this means scrambling, but it also means making some tight throws on third down and executing RPOs wisely. The linebacker tandem of Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles is going to make this really difficult, as both are savvy and athletic, but putting them in conflict is a necessity. The defense might win the majority of the snaps, but if Michigan can squeak out enough positives and string them together, this could be another game like 2023.

Defense: Attempt No. 5 to hang 100

Like the Michigan running back room, Ohio State is also hurting at its best position. The actual health of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate is unknown, but there is no way the Buckeyes will be as reluctant to throw to their best targets as much as last season. The game that sticks out here is 2021, when C.J. Stroud racked up 394 yards hitting his NFL trio of receivers, yet the Wolverines only allowed him to find the end zone twice thanks to complicated converges that forced him to work his way down the field.

The problem is, though SP+ puts this defense 10th nationally, there are way more question marks than in years past. Are Jayire Hill, Zeke Berry, and Brandyn Hillman really ready for Julian Sayin and his 79.4% completion rate with 27 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and 9.4 YPA? Is a line of Rayshaun Benny, Derrick Moore, and converted edge Jaishawn Barham enough to maintain the level of disruption of the past four seasons?

I remain skeptical, but see a pathway. It definitely requires Michigan to force Sayin to keep it short and for Wink Martindale to not go blitz crazy and leave his corners on islands against these receivers. Perhaps like the Ohio State defense, the Wolverines will be trusting their linebackers to make the difference. There will be a lot on their plate — coverage, setting the edge, proper run fits — but perhaps their availability is maybe a bigger question than their ability to do so.

Given that the Buckeyes are not bad running the ball but are far from elite, it will be telling to see how balanced they try to be. Following all of the discourse after last season’s inept offensive play calling and execution, a course correction should be in store. If I am Michigan, I am dropping everyone and tempting Ohio State to run the ball. Adjustments can be made as necessary.

The narrow path

Ohio State always has the advantage on paper: even in 2023, arguably even in 2018, and this weekend is nothing different. What has turned the last four seasons is that Michigan has won the intangibles. Jim Harbaugh and Sherrone Moore have recognized their rosters’ strengths and weaknesses and approached The Game accordingly, playing within themselves and identifying the (often narrow) path to victory.

Moore must lean on the lessons of the past four years to extend the streak to five — and get his team into the CFP. The arrival of the offensive line and the surprising depth of the running back room gives him a great foundation, but the key on offense will be knowing how to best deploy Underwood, both protecting him from difficult situations but empowering him to make just enough plays to win the game.

Defensively, the task is the same as always. Michigan has made life tough on the past four potent Buckeye offenses through a combination of scheme and individual excellence, and this Saturday the recipe is exactly the same. Maybe a defensive back will make himself a legend, or maybe it will be the defensive line consistently pressuring Sayin and helping out the back seven. The road to the upset is not the likely one, but it absolutely is charted out already.