UNC looks to end season on high note vs. NC State

This weekend will in all likelihood mark the end of the 2025 UNC football season. With a win, it’s possible they can get a bowl bid as a 5-7 team, but that would take other circumstances that aren’t in their control to also break the Tar Heels’ way. Most likely, this weekend’s rivalry clash with NC State will be the last time we see this Carolina team.

While a win this weekend wouldn’t completely ease the fears of the many Bill Belichick skeptics — myself included — it would just be nice to pick up a win over State. (It’s been a while.) So, let’s take a look at the Wolfpack and see what they’ll bring to the table for this weekend’s game.

NC State will come into this weekend’s game bowl eligible at 6-5. After a 3-0 start, including a now pretty solid win over Virginia, the Wolfpack have been up and down. They did pick up an upset win over Georgia Tech and also come into this game off a victory over Florida State, but they have lost five of eight, four of which were by double digits.

On the offensive side of things, State are quarterbacked by CJ Bailey. On the year, Bailey is completing 69.6% of his passes, going for 21 touchdowns to nine interceptions. He has 2683 yards on 7.8 yards per attempt. When things are going wrong for him and State in the passing game, they can go very wrong, as they have three multi-interception games on the season. Those games were against Duke, Notre Dame, and Miami, though, and those teams are all a bit better than Carolina. That being said, there’s potential for mistakes if UNC can force them.

Bailey’s top targets on the season have been Terrell Anderson and Justin Joly. Wide receiver Anderson has 36 catches for 596 yards and five touchdowns. Meanwhile, the tight end Joly has clearly been a valuable insurance option, as he leads the team with 42 catches and six touchdowns.

UNC will also have to deal with a solid Wolfpack run game led by Daylan Smothers. State’s leading rusher is averaging over 90 yards per game, going for 907 yards at 6.1 per attempt and six touchdowns. Five different players have at least one rushing touchdown on the season for State. That includes freshman quarterback Will Wilson, who State have used in short yardage spots, as he had five TDs on the year.

The Wolfpack’s defense has allowed just under 30 points per game on the season, so they can be scored on. However, it should be noted that 139 of the points they allowed come from three games, all teams better than UNC, and if you factor those out, that average is 23.5. That being said, even with that, a game against FCS Campbell is the only time they held an opponent to under 300 yards. Even in wins like over East Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia Tech, they’ve given up 413, 514, and 559 yards respectively. They’ve been able to offset that a bit by forcing 13 turnovers on the season, but their defense is gettable with a good performance, it’s just, well, you know.

I personally cannot picture UNC winning this game because State is the better team and the Tar Heels haven’t really beaten any clearly better teams. However with a good focused effort, they could absolutely win.