Norris Reaches Match Point in Qatar, Rivals Look to Upset Mark Sutton - Formula 1 - Getty ImagesAdam CooperSat, November 29, 2025 at 11:46 PM UTC·6 min readIt’s crunch time for Lando Norris and McLaren in Qatar on Sunday, as for the first time, we are in a position where the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship can be settled.
There are three basic scenarios: Lando Norris can win the title this weekend with one race remaining; we will go to the finale with only Norris or teammate Oscar Piastri still left in the fight, thus guaranteeing that a McLaren driver wins; or Max Verstappen can hang on and ensure that all three are still in with a mathematical chance at the last round.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMcLaren gained a crucial advantage over the Red Bull camp in the Saturday sprint with Piastri winning, Norris third, and Verstappen fourth. That left us with Norris on 396 points, Piastri 22 behind on 374, and Verstappen 25 back on 371.
Crucially, Verstappen now has to outscore Norris in Qatar in order to keep in the championship fight. And given that he is starting behind – and the McLarens have generally been faster all weekend – beating the points leader won’t be easy. And if he retires from the race, his hopes are over.
For McLaren, the obvious priority is to ensure that Verstappen is out of the fight by the end of the evening by keeping him behind Norris, and thus ensure that we get a Papaya title winner. Whether it’s decided in Qatar in Norris’s favour, or Piastri stays in contention going to Abu Dhabi, is another issue.
"We would open a lot of champagne if that's the case," said team boss Andrea Stella when asked if squeezing Verstappen out of the battle would be Sunday’s main target.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement"For us as a team, the aspiration is always to make sure that the title was going to become a matter between Lando and Oscar. The reality is that we are facing very, very strong opposition."
Max Verstappen’s competitors know not to count him out after his midseason climb back to a championship battle. NurPhoto - Getty ImagesStella is careful not to underestimate Verstappen, especially given the way the Dutchman has so often bounced back this year: "If we think about Max, it seems like he's been uncomfortable, he's been complaining – and he's there, and he's not far by much, and he was there also in the sprint.
"Very strong opposition. We will have to give our best tomorrow to make sure that we go to Abu Dhabi and the drivers' championship remains a quest between our two drivers. We know that this is not going to be easy. But it's always been our aspiration."
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementStella also downplayed the fact that McLaren seems clearly faster here, and suggested that Pirelli and the FIA mandating a 25-lap stint limit on each set of tires will limit strategic options and make for a dull race.
"I think in terms of McLaren having a pace advantage, or no options from a strategy point of view, actually, there's many interesting situations that may happen," Stella said. "For instance, with safety cars. Do you take a safety car or not because of the limitation on laps? So there may be scenarios that actually are more interesting than we think in terms of how the race may unfold.
"Here with the gravel already in the sprint, there was a lot of gravel coming in. There may be just a safety car or a virtual safety car because of the gravel. So we are certainly not set for a simple race management."
Stella also countered the suggestion that Verstappen has nothing to lose and thus can be aggressive at the start. In fact, he has to finish and score points, come what may.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement"In terms of corner one and lap one," said the Italian, "I think every driver knows that first of all, if they want to stay in the championship, they need to finish the race. And this is valid for Max. We have a lot of respect for Max. He's a contender. He wants to win races. He doesn't want to win in a way that includes maneuvers that may be beyond the limit.
"So the recommendation to make sure that we are going to see the checkered flag is the usual, normal recommendation that we give to our drivers in every briefing on Sundays. They know very well, so I think they will just do their race, and look forward to finishing."
If Norris wins in Qatar, it doesn’t matter what Piastri or Verstappen do. Outracing his teammate, which he has done regularly in recent weeks, will get the job done – but he has to get by him first.
"I'm second, so not a whole chance for me to win at the minute," Norris conceded. "But yeah, I just focus on trying to get a good start. That's all.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement"You never know. I mean, the first couple of laps are always opportunities for everyone. But after that, I think it’s probably going to be pretty straightforward for everyone, too."
"I think we're in a good position. The car's been feeling good. I was much happier today than yesterday. So, progress. But it’s a long race tomorrow."
Piastri, meanwhile, heads into Sunday with renewed confidence, having taken pole and won the sprint, and then pole for the main event. It’s a big turnaround after his recent run of frustration.
If he can stay in front of Norris, he will go into the final race 15 points behind, still in the hunt, but in essence relying on his team mate having a disastrous weekend in Abu Dhabi. But first, he has to get the job done in Qatar.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement"I think the start is probably the biggest thing I need to get right tomorrow,” said the Aussie. "I think we saw today with clean air, it's a massive advantage around here. And with the stint lengths, I think it's going to be a pretty fast-paced race. So that's probably the biggest thing to get right."
Asked if it was now win or bust, he said: “Pretty much, yeah. I’ll try my best, starting from the best spot. So try and do some more of what I did today in the sprint, and see what we can do."
Verstappen, of course, can never be counted out. If he can get ahead of Norris at the start – and he has the advantage of being on the cleaner side of the track than Lando – then it’s game on, at least in terms of keeping it open for one more weekend.
"You never know what happens in the race," said Verstappen. "Today, the sprint was pretty boring, I would say, because you just can't follow – tires overheat. Plus, with all these high-speed corners and high grip as well, it’s just super tough to get close.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement"Tomorrow, there's a lot more fuel in the car. The start for sure is important, but then you never know. It can also be influenced by other cars in the race that might ruin your own race. It's impossible to say now already that it's going to be boring tomorrow."
One way or another, it’s unlikely to be a dull evening, and even an early title success for Norris will still be a big story for the sport, as he’s a bright new talent and will be McLaren’s first champion since Lewis Hamilton 17 years ago.
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