Sunday Standings: The Thanksgiving playoff indicator going to be tested this year

There’s a trope in the NHL about the standings at Thanksgiving being a reliable indicator for the playoffs. Since 2013-14, 77% of teams in playoff position on Turkey Day have ended up qualifying for the playoffs. It’s not always an absolute, four teams last year fell out, but it is something. Here’s a graphic of how the standings were looking on Thursday.

The good news for the Penguins: they were in a playoff spot on Thursday. The bad news: they were also four points above being 15th in the conference and last in their division at that point. That goes for more than just Pittsburgh, the whole East was only separated by nine points from first to 16th. Of all years, the teams have been tightly packed to this point, which could render the Thanksgiving marker all but meaningless.

Rather than being a playoff predictor, Thanksgiving could be seen more as an eliminator. At this point only Buffalo (for the East) looks in trouble. The rest are picking up enough overtime points to at least maintain various levels of hope and relevancy into December.

Rolling forward, it will be interesting to check back in around Christmas or New Years to see how the standings are developing. By then the season will be nearing 50% complete and some distance might start to develop.

Fast forwarding ahead from Thursday, here’s the Metropolitan Division today:

The Penguins were potentially a quiet 20 minutes away on Friday night when losing 3-1 to Columbus from being in last place this morning had that comeback failed (which would have resulted in 27 points for them and 28 for CBJ). Pittsburgh does have a game in hand, but still that’s how close things are at the moment and a good example of why the Thanksgiving marker means less than ever for the East, considering they could (and nearly did) go from a playoff spot on Thursday to last place a few hours later on Saturday night.

It also shows the importance of the divisional games, of which the Pens only have one in the next four weeks, a matchup tomorrow night against the suddenly surging Flyers. That game is one a team really needs to strive to win (or at least a “must get to overtime”, even though that doesn’t flow as nicely) given the tightness of the standings.

It’s not just close, it’s competitive. Every team in the division has more points than games played, putting them all on pace for 82+ points at this point of the season. It’s been like pulling teeth for some of those teams towards the bottom to get there, but by God they’re in that position for now at least.

How long will it keep going? That will be the interesting question that everyone will be wondering. Injuries will mount and could become a factor as the grind continues. This week saw Kyle Palmieri of the Islanders go down with a torn ACL and the Rangers might have a developing situation after Adam Fox got injured yesterday depending on the severity on if it was as bad as it looked. Injuries to players like Rickard Rakell and Justin Brazeau are a big reason the Pens have retreated back into the pack in the first place. Washington has some issues down the middle with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Nic Dowd on IR, though they’ve been managing that well in the last week with three straight wins.

Usually by Thanksgiving and having about 30% of the results in the picture is developing enough that teams off to great starts can already see a good ending point. That won’t be the case this year with how competitive and close the outlook is, things could go right down to the wire with teams jockeying for position over the course of the whole year. For better or worse, that’s the intended magic of the NHL’s scoring system and the preponderance of overtime games these days where teams try to stay close and at least earn a point by staying tied through 60 minutes.