2025 Atlanta Braves Player Review: Pierce Johnson

2025 was the second full season in a Braves uniform for Pierce Johnson and the outcome was pretty similar to how things had gone for him in his first full season, and really his overall tenure since he got traded to the Braves. Usually that’d be enough to stick around for another year — especially considering that the Braves had a club option on him following the 2025 season. We all know the answer as to whether or not Pierce Johnson is sticking around but now, it’s time to take a look at how he fared in what just might be his final go-around with the Braves.

How acquired

Ahead of the 2023 Trade Deadline, the Braves picked up Pierce Johnson in a trade that sent Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon to the Rockies. Following a successful stint to end the season in Atlanta, the Braves and Johnson agreed on a two-year, $14.25 million contract extension with a team option for another $7 million ahead of the 2026 season.

What were the expectatons?

While it would’ve been impossible to repeat his opening stint in Atlanta in 2023 that saw him post a crazy-low ERA of 0.76 (17 ERA-, which is also insane) with a more-reasonable-but-still-impressive FIP of 2.83 (66 FIP-), simply approaching those levels would’ve been a success for Pierce Johnson in 2024. He accomplished that with a 3.67 ERA (89 ERA-) and a 3.61 FIP (91 FIP-). It was also interesting that he managed to keep up that level of performance while seeing his strikeout percentage dip from being in the low 30s for most of his prime down into to the high 20s following the 2024 season. The expectation for Johnson in 2025 was that he’d continue to strike out batters and miss a ton of bats while doing so in semi-high leverage situations going forward. In particular, he moved up the depth chart given Joe Jimenez’ absence for the season, which could’ve been a blessing for his value if he pitched well — or a curse if he pitched poorly.

Numerically, Johnson came into the 2025 season with a career 94/88/90 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) — basically a very solid if not quite elite reliever. His 2022-2024 was a bit of a mixed bag, with an injury in 2022, and diminished performance while with the Rockies, but still good for an aggregate 90/86/81 line, so there was no reason to expect anything other than “Pierce Johnson, good reliever” for 2025.

2025 results

Well, things started well enough for Pierce Johnson as he continued to perform at a pretty high level over the course of the 2025 season. Up until August 31, Johnson actually recored an ERA of 2.15 (51 ERA-) and a FIP of 3.57 (88 FIP-), which would’ve been exactly in line with what he had produced so far during his time with the Braves. That all changed for some reason or another in September, which is when he got absolutely lit up and ended his season on a down note. We’ll talk about that in detail a little bit later on.

Eventually, Johnson finished the season with a 3.05 ERA (72 ERA-) and a FIP of 3.91 (97 FIP-). His 98 xFIP- suggests that unlike many of his teammates, HR/FB did not factor into his season all that much. These are still perfectly fine numbers, but as you can see when compared to what he had done up until September, that rough final month certainly had an impact. That probably ended up being the difference for Pierce Johnson between his second-straight season of posting up at least 0.5 fWAR and posting up the 0.3 fWAR that he ended up with for the entire season. As such, that represents a steady decline from the 0.7 mark that he reached back in 2023. Again, you’d like that fWAR number to stay above zero, and ideally crest 0.3, for relievers but things could’ve ended on a much higher note than what they did for Pierce Johnson in 2025.

What went right?

Well, his curveball was still pretty solid and his velocity in general was still there. He continued to throw the curveball at a very high rate and he was able to keep the xwOBA-against on it down to .291 on the season, which was around the area of where it was in 2024 (.298). The xwOBA-against on his four-seamer went down to .302 after being at .308 in 2024, so he certainly still had some good stuff out there. His fastball command substantially improved from where it was in 2024, as he was far more consistently able to throw it at the top of the zone. Again, we’ll talk about what happened during that disastrous September but outside that, Pierce Johnson experienced the usual peaks and valleys that most regular relievers experience and usually for Johnson, those peaks are pretty high and the valleys don’t go down into the severe depths.

As far as individual performances go, I’m personally always partial to relievers going multiple innings since that’s not something you see in today’s era of reliever roles being set in ink for the most part. Back on April 20, Johnson pitched two innings and went six-up, six-down with two strikeouts as well. It wasn’t spectacular but it’s the type of performance that has made Pierce Johnson a nice amount of money over the course of his career. It was especially encouraging considering how rough of a time he had against Tampa Bay just a week earlier and it was also nice that it helped to cap off a rare sweep in favor of the Braves in 2025.

He also happened to be on the hill for this stroke of excellent fortune in extra innings, though the Braves went on to lose this game later anyway.

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What went wrong?

I’d imagine that if there’s a reason why the Braves decided to decline the club option on Pierce Johnson heading int0 2026, it was because the wheels essentially came off for him in the last month of the season. Johnson made 11 appearances in September and ended up with 8 2/3 innings pitched across that span. As if that innings-to-appearances ratio wasn’t alarming enough, everything else was. He finished with an ERA of 8.31 (196 ERA-) and a FIP of 5.90 (145 FIP-) during the month of September, which he capped off on September 26 by getting lit up for four hits (including a homer) and four runs against the Pirates. Oof.

It’s tempting to read into a short sample size being the reason why the Braves decided to decline his option. With that being said, two of the things that Johnson considered his calling card when it came to keeping the other team off of the scoreboard fell off of a cliff for him in September: missing bats and then keeping the ball on the ground if he did find any bats. Johnson entered the final month of the season with a strikeout rate of 25.5 percent — that’s down when compared to what he’s historically put up in that department but at the same time, his 21.4 percent strikeout rate in this past September is paltry compared to his historical numbers. Additionally, Johnson was giving up home runs at a rate of 3.12 per nine innings in September, which was an alarming step up from the HR/9 rate of 0.89 that he had put up prior to September. Again, it’s hard to say that one month is enough to cost you $7 million but surely that didn’t help matters.

When it comes to his performances outside of September, the obvious candidate here was that one weekend in San Francisco where the Braves got walked off twice in two days with Pierce Johnson being on the mound for both games. Johnson uncorked a wild pitch in the tenth inning of the first game that led to the Giants celebrating their first walk-off win of the weekend and then Johnson gave up a walk-off homer to Matt Chapman that meant that an incredible performance from Bryce Elder (!!!) ended up going to waste as the two-run shot upended a one-run lead that Johnson was tasked with holding onto. Pierce Johnson’s exit from the mound following that second game essentially summed up how the entire franchise and fanbase was feeling about the season at that point.

This was the worst appearance WPA-wise for any Braves pitcher all season, and in the bottom 25 for any pitcher appearance for the year as a whole.

Though not necessarily within his control, Johnson essentially benefited from a favorable HR/FB at some points, and less so at others — some of which may have tanked how the Braves ended up feeling about him. As Raisel Iglesias struggled early in the year, Johnson had a 63/66/88 line through May 22 — the low HR/FB made him feel like a generally-safe option for higher-leverage work when Iglesias got temporarily demoted. However, once that happened, Johnson ended up with a 114/106/73 line over the next 30 days or so. In other words, he pitched better, and had way worse results. Even in September, the line was 196/145/90 — a disaster, but not really a deserved one.

2026 outlook

For now, Pierce Johnson is a free agent after the Braves made the choice to decline his $7 million option for the upcoming season. Considering that Johnson has served as a relatively reliable reliever for most of his career (even despite that lengthy “What went wrong?” section), I’d say that it’s safe to assume that he’s going to continue on in that role with some team once Opening Day 2026 rolls around. It sure would’ve been interesting to see if there would’ve been any changes with how Walt Weiss would’ve deployed Johnson when compared to how Brian Snitker utilized him. We could still see that since the Braves can sign Johnson just like any other team could. For now, it feels like it’s only a matter of time before someone signs him and he joins another bullpen in an important role.

He project as an okay reliever going forward; his advanced age (he’ll be 35 for most of the 2026 campaign) and the fact that his xFIP keeps increasing (an xFIP- of 70, 75, 90, and 98 from 2022-onward) put a damper a more favorable prognosis. Still, he could easily throw together an 0.5 fWAR season or whatever if he avoids the temporary pitfalls of his 2025 campaign.