Week 13 Colts vs. Texans Game discussion

The Indianapolis Colts are at home to take on the Houston Texans in week 13 of the 2025 season, kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. EST.

A week off of a loss to the Chiefs in Kansas City, our Colts host the Texans in the biggest AFC South matchup of the year so far. Last week saw the Colts control the game for more than three quarters only to give the game away in the fourth. The defense played well but the offense sputtered, a near polar opposite from earlier in the season. We did find out that Daniel Jones is playing with a fracture in his leg, which sounds awful and probably is quite painful, but ultimately isn’t a risk for further injury. At least not any more than playing in the NFL is in general. That injury may help to explain some of why Jones has not looked as good, especially against pressure, as he did during the first two months of the season. With that said, it doesn’t really matter why he’s looked bad, he needs to look better in those situations regardless.

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This week will only be more difficult for the offense than it was a week ago. The Texans might have the best defense in the NFL and seemingly the Colts need to lean on Jonathan Taylor, something head coach Shane Steichen seemed unwilling to do a week ago. Another thing they have to do is get the ball out of Jones’ hand quickly. Quick hitters, screens, RPO’s, anything that might slow down the Texans pass rush which features Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Both men have torn through NFL offensive lines to the tune of 10.5 and 11 sacks respectively. This isn’t a game for a hobbled QB to take deep drops and wait on slow developing routes.

Defensively a week ago we saw a good performance before the wheels fell off late. The defense was on the field far too long and didn’t have an answer for the Chiefs passing concepts. Specifically crossing routes designed to beat man coverage. This week CJ Stroud will suit up for the first time in three weeks. Stroud’s season started much slower than most expected. The third year passer has gone 161-242 for 1,702 yards, 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Stroud hasn’t been bad but it’s a far cry from what everyone assumed it would be when he burst on to the scene as a rookie. The worst stat is that the Texans are 3-5 this year with Stroud as the starter. \

Although, any analytics person worth their weight in digital ink will tell you that, wins are not a quarterback stat. And I happen to believe that, mostly. In this case the fact that they went 3-0 with Davis Mills leading the team says less about Stroud vs. Mills and more about the team’s growth as the season has gone on. So what does that mean for the Colts in week 13?

In my opinion it gets tricky.

We’re living in a different world than we were four weeks ago and while we have a good idea of what the Texans offense is, we haven’t seen Stroud play in nearly a month. He’s a wildcard. He is capable of throwing for 400+ and 3-5 touchdowns any given Sunday – which is true even if he has looked much closer to average so far this season. It will be interesting to see what Lou Anaroumo will cook up for this Texans offense and I will be interested to see how this Colts secondary grows together over the back third of the season.

Ultimately I don’t feel great about this game. I still think the Colts are a good team and nearly every fan reaction I saw to last weeks loss was a huge overreaction, but this is a matchup nightmare when you consider the Texans defense and the relative unknown volatility of the Texans offense. I don’t like this matchup, I don’t like this game.

Here’s to hoping I’m wrong and Indy rolls. Also, let’s stop talking about the playoffs:

Prediction:

Texans: 22

Colts: 23

As always, go Colts.

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This is your week thirteen open thread so hang out here, chat, celebrate, commiserate, and argue in the comments! Go wild (within reason)!

Go Colts!