A young Moana meets the ocean in Moana 2026
By
Alex Harrison
Published 15 minutes ago
Alex is the Senior Movies Editor, managing the New Movies team, as well as one of ScreenRant's Rotten Tomatoes-approved critics. After graduating from Brown University with a B.A. in English, he spent a locked-down year in Scotland completing a Master's in Film Studies from the University of Edinburgh, which he hears is a nice, lively city. He now lives in and works from Milan, Italy, conveniently a short train ride from the Venice Film Festival, which he first covered for SR in 2024.
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2026 will be a major test for the box office. The landscape has changed significantly in the wake of the pandemic, and it's looking like the return to the highs of 2018 and '19 that the industry hoped for won't be happening anytime soon. One consequence of that: The $1 billion milestone, which used to be the benchmark for success for tentpoles like Disney's live-action Moana remake, is getting harder and harder to reach. All of this year, in fact, analysts have debated whether $600 million, $700 million, or $800 million worldwide should be considered the "new $1 billion."
But next year's release calendar is loaded with major titles. From the high-profile blockbuster return of filmmakers like Christopher Nolan and Steven Spielberg to new installments of the Star Wars, Toy Story, and Avengers franchises, several films slated for 2026 would have been eyed as likely billion-dollar grossers in the pre-COVID days. The big question will be how many get there, if any.
Disney is certainly hoping its Moana remake will get the job done. The film is slated for July 10, a prime slot right in the middle of summer – which also means it will face fierce competition. What are the odds it will overcome and be one of the few films that rises to the top?
Disney's Live-Action Moana Movie Has Potential To Go The Distance
Live-action remakes used to be a gold mine for Disney; of the 57 billion-dollar movies in history, five (if you include 2019's The Lion King) are remakes of their beloved classics. But in 2025, they proved to be less consistent than they once were.
After heading into theaters in March with a great deal of noise and controversy attached to it, the live-action Snow White bombed, grossing $205 million against a budget reportedly between $240-270 million. Given its status as one of Disney's signature properties, the press was ready to declare the remake trend dead. But just a couple of months later, Lilo & Stitch became the only Hollywood movie to cross $1 billion this year so far.
The clear takeaway was that, for a remake to succeed with today's audiences, the original has to have mattered to a younger audience. Millennials are the generation with young children to bring to theaters, and they're much more likely to want to share Lilo & Stitch with their kids than Snow White. This bodes well for 2026's Moana, as the original film has been one of the most popular movies on Disney+ since its release in 2016. Not only are kids more likely to want to see the new version, but parents are more likely to have an interest in taking them.
Even more encouragingly, Disney has already proven the power of that interest. Moana 2 released in theaters last Thanksgiving, after being repurposed from a Disney+ TV series into a theatrical film with the original voice actors returning, and it set numerous records for the lucrative holiday period. By the end of its box office run, it earned over $1.05 billion. The live-action Moana is arriving quite soon after, but it's not unreasonable to expect a repeat of Moana 2's performance, even in this theatrical climate.
The Box Office Ain’t Big Enough For Every Blockbuster
Zendaya with Matt Damon in The Odyssey
And yet, Moana has a major obstacle on its road to $1 billion. The 2026 box office is crowded. At a time when movies in general can only attract so much attention, it will be difficult for any film to stand out beyond its release weekend. Moana has a better chance than most, but unfortunately, it has a very limited window to have the spotlight to itself.
On July 17, just one week after the live-action remake's release, Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey comes out. This film has seemingly planted the flag as the most-anticipated release of the summer, flexing on its competitors by selling out some of its premium-format screenings a full year in advance. As a perk for testing out the company's brand-new cameras, it will lock up the world's IMAX screens for a few weeks (and ice out Spider-Man: Brand New Day, which releases July 31).
Any chance Moana has to own the cultural conversation dies when The Odyssey hits theaters, and that's not exactly conducive to grossing $1 billion. The case for it is that these two films service very different audiences, and Disney's remake could exist comfortably alongside Nolan's adaptation, continuing to attract family audiences. But the busy calendar could hurt that opportunity, too.
In recent years, families have often been inexplicably starved of choice when it comes to theatrical movies – not so in 2026. In the run-up to Moana, Pixar's original Hoppers releases in March; The Super Mario Galaxy Movie in April; Toy Story 5 in June; and Minions 3 over the July 4 weekend. Given those, and especially with the incredibly popular Minions franchise returning just one week before Moana, the film's target audience may not be quite as driven to seek it out as in other years.
So, if the Moana remake is to make $1 billion in theaters, it really needs to shine against its competition. The franchise's caché will help, as will Dwayne Johnson, who will reprise his Maui voice role in live-action and has a long history of anchoring family-friendly blockbusters. However, as with much of the box office these days, a lot will come down to execution, and Moana's trailers will really have to sell audiences on choosing this film over the many others vying for their attention next summer.
Moana
Like Follow Followed Adventure Action Comedy Release Date July 10, 2026 Director Thomas Kail Writers Ron Clements, John Musker, Chris Williams, Don Hall, Pamela Ribon, Aaron Kandell, Jordan Kandell, Jared Bush, Dana Ledoux MillerCast
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Dwayne Johnson
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Catherine Laga'aia
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Frankie Adams
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John Tui
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Moana 2026
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