Ricky O'DonnellMon, December 1, 2025 at 1:00 PM UTC·12 min readThe NBA season is only six weeks old, but it feels like almost half the league is already prepared to begin prioritizing draft position over winning. The top of 2026 NBA Draft is absolutely stacked, and it’s triggering one of the biggest tank races in history. Read our latest NBA mock draft here for a full look at how this draft class is shaping up.
Duke forward Cameron Boozer, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, and BYU wing A.J. Dybantsa are the big prizes come June, but just being one of the worst teams in the league is no longer a guarantee to land a top pick. The NBA flattened the lottery odds in 2019, and it’s produced some wild outcomes lately. The Atlanta Hawks jumped from No. 10 in the lottery to the No. 1 pick in 2024. The Dallas Mavericks did them one better in 2025 by jumping from No. 11 to the No. 1 pick for the rights to Cooper Flagg.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWith the odds now boosted for the middle tier of the lottery and lessened for the top teams, there’s plenty of incentive to enter the tank race even if you have no shot at “completing” for the cellar with the Wizards and Nets. There’s bound to be plenty of heartbreak when the ping pongs finally revealed themselves in May. The fact that bad teams like the Clippers and Pelicans owe their unprotected first-round picks to much better teams makes this lottery even spicier.
As the 2025-26 season flips the calendar to December, let’s check in on where the tank race for the 2026 NBA Draft stands right now. This is our prediction of how the lottery order will look going into the drawing at the end of the regular season.
11. Portland Trail Blazers
11th lottery slot odds at No. 1 pick: 2%
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement11th lottery slot odds at top-4 pick: 9.4%
The Blazers signaled that they would rather make the playoffs than enter the tank race when the traded for Jrue Holiday over the summer. There are seemingly two open spots in the Western Conference playoff picture fibhg nos with the Grizzlies and Clippers falling off (more on them later), and it feels like the Blazers will be competing with the Suns (who don’t own their draft pick) for the final bid. Portland looked pretty good to start the year, but they enter the week as losers of seven of their last nine games as injuries have piled up. The offense lacks a high ceiling without dependable halfcourt creation, and the defense hasn’t been as good as expected. I would be surprised if the Blazers eventually waive the white flag on the season since they should at least make the play-in tournament, but ultimately it they’ll be a lottery long-shot if they can’t make the playoffs. If the Blazers do make the playoffs, they owe their pick to Chicago.
10. Chicago Bulls
10th lottery slot odds at No. 1 pick: 3%
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement10th lottery slot odds at top-4 pick: 14.9%
The Bulls’ 5-0 start is a distance memory right now. Chicago has gone 4-10 ever since, including dropping games to some of the worst teams in the league. The Bulls beat the 2-win Wizards by one point, then lost to the 3-win Pelicans, 4-win Pacers, and 6-win Hornets and Jazz. Injuries have wiped away what looked like one of the league’s deeper benches, and the defense has been torched lately without any rim protection, ball containment, or ability to force takeaways. The Bulls want to play in transition every possession, and that’s just not sustainable when you can’t get stops. This team is looking more and more like the 32-win unit Las Vegas predicted at the start of the season. Playing in the East will give them a chance if they can stay healthy, but there’s just no reason to believe in the Bulls right now after their recent play.
9. Utah Jazz
9th lottery slot odds at No. 1 pick: 4.5%
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement9th lottery slot odds at top-4 pick: 20.2%
It’s a long season, but the Jazz could be flirting with the danger zone of giving up their draft pick due to the shear volume of tankers right now. Utah’s pick is top-8 protected, otherwise it’s owed to the reigning champion Thunder from the 2021 Derrick Favors salary dump. Yikes. The Jazz showed some fight out of the gates with Lauri Markkanen enjoying the best season of his career and guard Keyonte George leveling up in his third season. Any hope that this could actually be a play-in team this season probably ended when Walker Kessler went down for the year with a torn labrum. The Jazz are incentivized to start losing a lot as soon as possible, even if the players are obviously still trying to win. Utah remains far away in its rebuild, and giving up this pick in what should be a tanking season would be the worst case scenario.
8. Oklahoma City Thunder via Los Angeles Clippers
8th lottery slot odds at No. 1 pick: 6%
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement8th lottery slot odds at top-4 pick: 26.2%
The Clippers’ demise is the NBA’s biggest nightmare. Los Angeles owes the Thunder its unprotected first-round pick as part of the 2019 Paul George trade. The Clippers already gave up MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that turned into Jalen Williams as part of the deal, and now it threatens to surrender another premium asset to the defending champs. Can the Clippers get their act together? LA enters the week 2-13 in its last 15 games, but I have to think there’s at least enough talent here to right the ship a little if they stick it out. James Harden is playing amazing basketball, but the defense has slipped considerably from last year and Kawhi Leonard still can’t stay healthy. There’s a scenario where the Clippers could punt the season by trading Harden for future picks, and that would be a nightmare for the Thunder’s rivals. This season got off to a bad start when the Clippers opted for future flexibility over maximizing their current roster when they traded Norm Powell over the summer, and it’s coming back to bite them now. Imagine the Thunder winning 70 games, going back-to-back as champions, and then landing a top-3 pick. It’s a very possible scenario thanks to the Clippers.
7. Charlotte Hornets
7th lottery slot odds at No. 1 pick: 6%
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement7th lottery slot odds at top-4 pick: 31.9%
The Hornets have some good young talent, and it’s possible that they’re just starting to get healthy. The new headliner on this team is rookie No. 4 overall pick Kon Knueppel, who has been the league’s best rookie so far and looks like a future offensive stud. Knueppel’s emergence pushes 2023’s No. 2 overall pick Brandon Miller into the background a little bit, but he looked great in a recent win over the Bulls after returning from shoulder injury. LaMelo Ball is still here too, and if he can actually stay on the floor, he’s one of the league’s most talented jumbo creators. The Hornets could finish much “better” than this in the reverse standings with a really young team, but this rookie class is so good and there’s enough other talent to put them closer to the play-in than the basement.
6. Dallas Mavericks
6th lottery slot odds at No. 1 pick: 9%
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement6th lottery slot odds at top-4 pick: 37.2%
Nico Harrison has been fired, but the Dallas Mavericks are still paying the price for his doomed Luka Doncic trade. The Mavericks went from the NBA Finals to the No. 1 pick after trading Doncic, and even landing Cooper Flagg isn’t changing the team’s short-term fortunes at all. Anthony Davis’ lack of availability and Kyrie Irving’s torn ACL killed any chances of a competitive season, and at this point the Mavs’ best plan is tanking to add another talented young player next to Flagg. The Mavs need to make their pick count this year because they don’t control their draft pick for the next four drafts thanks to various deals meant to build around Doncic. The franchise really needs Davis to roar back to form so they can trade him for the best possible package, and that might give them a few more wins along the way. This is already a lost season for Dallas, but the tear down is just beginning after Nico’s firing.
5. Sacramento Kings
5th lottery slot odds at No. 1 pick: 10.5%
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement5th lottery slot odds at top-4 pick: 42.1%%
This Kings season always felt doomed to fail with an island of misfit veteran toys and not many good young players on the roster — and that’s exactly how it’s playing out. The trio of Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan all needs to go, but the trade market is unlikely to be popping for any of them. Signing Dennis Schroder has been a bust, and Russell Westbrook’s good season isn’t really moving the needle. New lead decision-maker Scott Perry is going to put him stamp on this team, and at least the Kings have their draft pick this year to hope for a new franchise player.
4. Atlanta Hawks via New Orleans Pelicans
4th lottery slot odds at No. 1 pick: 12.5%
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement4th lottery slot odds at top-4 pick: 48.1%
The Pelicans were bashed from every corner for trading their unprotected 2026 first-round pick on draft night 2025 for the rights to Derik Queen. Queen has been awesome to start his rookie season, but that trade will still be painful if the Hawks cash in on a top-3 pick. Atlanta is in a fascinating position of having a really good team playing its best ball while Trae Young is out. Young is a free agent this summer, and it’s possible the Hawks can replace him with a younger, more cost-controlled future star in the draft. The Pelicans are probably going to be road kill in the West the rest of the season even if they’re not tanking on purpose, but Queen and fellow rookie lottery pick Jeremiah Fears give the franchise some hope for the future. The Hawks are going to be smiling with every New Orleans loss along the way.
3. Indiana Pacers
3rd lottery slot odds at No. 1 pick: 14%
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement3rd lottery slot odds at top-4 pick: 52.1%
There’s a chance that Indiana’s nightmare season could have a happy ending in the draft lottery. Tyrese Haliburton’s torn Achilles in the Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals is one of the most heartbreaking injuries in recent memory, and it was followed by Myles Turner’s free agency departure and a rash of other injuries to start the season. Indiana is firmly in “gap year” territory, giving them to the most ethical tank of any top pick contender and potentially the best possible odds to add one of Dybantsa, Boozer, or Peterson. Indiana should be very good again if Haliburton can return healthy next season with a star rookie teammate next to him. The Pacers are definitely going to be the sentimental favorites on lottery night.
2. Brooklyn Nets
2nd lottery slot odds at No. 1 pick: 14%
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement2nd lottery slot odds at top-4 pick: 52.1%
The Nets just want to push ‘sim to end’ until lottery night. Brooklyn is getting crushed almost every night despite getting a career season from Michael Porter Jr., who could become one of the league’s biggest trade candidates as the deadline approaches. The Nets’ future rests with their five first-round rookies, and while some of them have made flashes (Egor Demin seems like he’ll be better than I thought), none look fit to be the future face of the franchise. The Nets badly need to find that player in the 2026 draft. I think Brooklyn might be the most desperate team on lottery night: the Wizards have a better young core, and the Nets can’t even tank in a weaker draft next season because their owe swap rights to Houston. The Nets’ future is going to be really bleak without a top-3 pick in 2026.
1. Washington Wizards
1st lottery slot odds at No. 1 pick: 14%
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement1st lottery slot odds at top-4 pick: 52.1%%
The Wizards’ young core has shown some growth this season, but wins haven’t followed. Former No. 2 overall pick Alex Sarr looks much better in his second NBA season, Kyshawn George has also taken a leap in year two, and rookie Tre Johnson is making almost 40 percent of his threes from the jump. The Wizards just need the straw that stirs the drink, and landing a top-3 pick in the lottery would get them that player. Any of Boozer, Peterson, and Dybantsa (that’s how I rank them) would be a god send for this roster and give the Wizards some real hope moving forward. Washington still needs to replace its head coach and continue to build out the roster, but entering this summer armed with the league’s most cap space plus a top pick would create a much brighter future for a franchise that’s been stuck in the mud for a long time.
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