Alex Bregman is still a perfect free agent target for the Tigers

Here we are a season later, and the Detroit Tigers should still sign free agent third baseman Alex Bregman. Their struggles down the stretch and in the postseason perfectly emphasized the need for Bregman-type hitters. Scott Harris and the Tigers know this well, hence their pursuit last offseason. Top prospect Kevin McGonigle has similar traits and should be a staple in the lineup for years to come as a left-handed hitter. Put the two together in between the strikeout prone sluggers, and watch this offense cook.

Last year, the Tigers and Bregman, represented by Scott Boras, were linked all offseason. It was clear they were interested and talking, while other teams’ interest in signing him faded into January and February. Sources had Bregman doing preliminary work on buying a house in the metro Detroit area. For a few weeks in late January and the first half of February, this seemed very close to a done deal.

Ultimately, they reportedly disagreed on a difference of about $15 million total over the course of six years, as well as whether he’d get an opt-out after the first or second year. They didn’t land him in the end, but they were willing to spend $171.5 million, as well as giving up a draft pick, which says something about both future payroll space and their serious interest in reuniting Bregman and A.J. Hinch.

Instead, Bregman went to the Boston Red Sox on a deal that paid him $40 million a year for three years but provided opt-outs after the first two seasons. Bregman missed almost a quarter of the season with a quad injury, but otherwise he raked, played good defense, and was widely praised for mentoring a good group of young position players in the wake of the Rafael Devers situation.

The trick here is that Bregman is heading into his age 32 season. He shows every sign of remaining a very good player for several more years, but no one lasts forever. Instead of bidding for his age 31-36 seasons, now it’s his 32-37 seasons were a six-year deal to be signed. On the other hand, his production says he would’ve posted a 5-6 WAR season in 2025 if not for the injury, and Bregman is known as a gym rat and largely immune to injuries in his career.

He certainly proved he was worth everything he was asking for last offseason, but he can’t really expect the offers to be bigger than they were last season either. Reports last year had Boras trying to push the numbers up to a round $200 million, though their final offer to the Tigers was $186 million over six seasons with a first year opt-out. Instead he took $40 million from the Red Sox and then opted out. Maybe $150-160 million, bringing his total in free agency close to that $200 million, is a good place to rough out a likely contract this time around whether it’s over five or six seasons.

If there’s one thing that has really changed, beyond Bregman being a year older, it’s the fact that the Tigers no longer have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. Last year, after the Houston Astros extended him the qualifying offer, which he declined, signing Bregman would have cost them their third highest pick, which would have been their second round selection. They used that pick on RHP Malachi Witherspoon in the 2025 draft.

We know the Tigers believe strongly in building through the draft, and the Scott Harris front office appear to have done quite well in their first two drafts. Things are far more opaque in terms of the 2025 edition, as we haven’t seen much of Jordan Yost, Michael Oliveto, or Witherspoon as of yet, but either way, building through the draft is a necessity for all but the biggest payroll teams. So, not only will Bregman be a little cheaper this time around, there isn’t the attached pain of having to give up a precious top pick in the draft next year.

The Red Sox seem interested in bringing Bregman back, and one would expect they have the inside track. An up and coming team with more resources than the Tigers, in a town he already spent a year acclimating to, would seem to tip the scales in the Red Sox favor, even if the Tigers come back with a highly competitive offer.

On the other hand, if Bregman was dead set on returning to the Red Sox, a deal would be in place already. That isn’t the case, and the Red Sox have been linked to Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, J.T. Realmuto, and Kazuma Okamoto, as well as hopes for a reunion with Bregman.

The Tigers current payroll is roughly $145 million, so adding Bregman would run the payroll up somewhere in the $175-180 million dollar range. Based on the Tigers’ pursuit last year, that’s within the realm of possibility. Of course, the Tigers could also use at least one more good reliever and perhaps a bit of starting pitching depth.

So far, the Tigers have had very little in the way of rumors of interest in any players. That will presumably change in another week when the Winter Meetings get underway. There’s really no way to guess whether they might circle back on Bregman, but if there was ever a time to prove to the fanbase that they’re serious about making the most of Tarik Skubal’s final season of team control, it’s right now. .

Unless something truly shocking happens in terms of Tarik Skubal, the Tigers will have his money off the books in another year. In two seasons, Javier Báez’s $24 million will be off the books. Jack Flaherty and Gleyber Torres will also come off the books, freeing up another $47 million. All of which is to say that if the Tigers are willing to really make some moves, they’ll only be pressing their payroll to what appears to be their limit for one season.

Last season everything was set up for the Tigers to sign Bregman. There was only one other team, the Red Sox, that they were ultimately in serious competition with, and they weren’t very far apart on a potential deal. That window may have closed as numerous teams may be in on Alex Bregman now. The Mariners and Cubs, as well as a few other teams could be interested. But he’s still a perfect player for the Tigers to add in every respect. He would be a huge boost to the lineup, a huge boost to the locker room in terms of his competitiveness, experience, and willingness to mentor his younger teammates, and he would significantly improve an infield that is well below average defensively.

The Tigers are never going to be a destination, so finding a top free agent that fits their needs so well and is very willing to come to Detroit will probably always be a rare convergence of fit and interest. Alex Bregman should be a major target for the Tigers once again, but we’ll have to wait and see if they agree, and whether they’ll finally just do what it takes to land him.