Experts say the U.S. labor market is a “no-hire, no-fire” landscape, but are recent staff cuts at major corporations signaling a shift?
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For most of 2024 and 2025, the U.S. job market felt oddly still with relatively few mass layoffs, but no big hiring booms either. Economists called it the “no-hire, no-fire” era, a rare moment when employers seemed frozen in place after years of pandemic churn.
Now, that uneasy balance may be ending.
U.S.-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, up 183% from September and up 175% from October 2024, according to job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas (1).
“This is the highest total for October in over 20 years, and the highest total for a single month in the fourth quarter since 2008. Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the landscape,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The industries leading with job cuts were technology, retail and services.
On the same day in October, Amazon and UPS announced sweeping job cuts — roughly 14,000 and 48,000 positions, respectively — signaling corporate America’s hiring pause could be turning into something darker. UPS had laid off the employees over the first nine months of the year. Other major players, from Target to Novo Nordisk, are also shedding thousands.
And while profit margins across the S&P 500 remain healthy, experts warn these layoffs could mark a new phase in the labor market, one defined by caution, cost-cutting and AI-driven efficiency.
Why big companies are cutting back
As of early November, U.S. employers have announced 1,099,500 job cuts this year, up 65% from the same period last year and the highest year-to-date total since 2020,.
So what’s driving the pullback?
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AI and automation: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in June that AI will shrink the company’s corporate workforce over time. That forecast seems to be arriving early. AI’s integration is reshaping white-collar roles, from HR and logistics to marketing and operations.
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Pandemic hangover: Many firms, especially in tech and logistics, overhired during the COVID-19 boom. As consumer demand normalizes, companies are trimming back to pre-pandemic staffing levels.
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Economic uncertainty: Businesses are facing higher input costs, trade tariffs, and an unsettled global economy, all prompting a wait-and-see approach to hiring.
“Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes,” said Challenger.
The end of “no hire, no fire” — and what it means for workers
The “no-hire, no-fire” label emerged this year to describe a corporate limbo: Companies didn’t want to expand payrolls in a slowing economy, but they also didn’t want to shed workers after struggling to rehire during the pandemic. That stalemate kept the unemployment rate low, even as job growth cooled.
“Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market,” said Challenger.
Despite the headline-grabbing numbers from major brands, some economists believe the announcements may only be noise in a job market that’s contracting in some places but expanding in others.
A recent report from executive search firm Davron suggests the numbers say more about aging business models than widespread economic misery (2). “Roles tied to AI development, cloud services, cybersecurity, healthcare, renewable energy, and data analytics continue to grow. This divergence means that while some job categories are disappearing, others are thriving — often in entirely different fields.”
If you’re employed, the message is clear: stay ready. Even if layoffs aren’t widespread yet, the combination of AI adoption and cautious corporate spending means job security can’t be taken for granted.
How can you stay resilient? Start by making yourself indispensable. Focus on skills your company needs most: Adaptability, communication, and tech fluency. Learn how to use AI tools rather than fear them; it’s easier to justify keeping the employee who can teach others.
Next, make sure you’re keeping a six-month safety net. If your company’s industry is tightening, aim to have six months of expenses saved in liquid assets like high-yield saving accounts. It’s easier to weather a layoff when your rent and utilities are covered.
Even if you’re not looking for another job, refresh your LinkedIn profile, connect with industry peers, and attend networking events. The best time to look for your next role is before you need one.
Finally, avoid lifestyle creep. If your job stability is less than certain, it’s important to resist big spending or debt increases. If you get a raise, use it to boost your emergency fund instead of upgrading your car.
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Article sources
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Challenger, Gray & Christmas (1); Davron (2)
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
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