Saturday’s rivalry game entered garbage time once #4 WR Malik Benson took a pass 64 yards to the end zone to put Oregon up 26-14 on Washington with 7:55 left in the 4th quarter. The Huskies went into desperation mode on their next possession, going for it on 4th down at their own 32. When the Ducks got the ball back they didn’t throw a pass for the rest of the game in order to keep the clock running.
Oregon had nine meaningful possessions before garbage time, three of which ended as three and outs. The six other possessions were two touchdown drives and four sustained, full field drives that ended in field goals. I’ll break down the details below, but in short Oregon got plenty of explosive passing plays that put them in field goal range. However, the offense’s efficiency in both run rushing and passing was barely treading water, and explosive passing was practically non-existent.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSo since explosive passing was the only thing that was really moving the ball, most of their drives that got into Washington territory petered out right around the threshold of the redzone. The notable, perhaps iconic exception was the one time Oregon was able to use explosive passing to score from outside the redzone.
This lack of consistency on offense prevented the Ducks from earning a “clean kill” and putting the Huskies out of their misery before the 4th quarter. Washington’s own offense only had a single full field drive in their first five possessions (7 plays for 41 yards, 22 of which came on a single play), but got within a single possession at the end of the 2nd quarter on their 6th drive when they finally hit a couple of explosive passes. Of their nine meaningful drives, two ended in touchdowns but no others got into scoring position – six drives went nowhere in 5 plays or fewer and the last went nowhere in 7 plays. The Ducks’ defense had a bead on what the Huskies offense was trying to do all game, and the fact that Washington never adapted meant 3-pointers were enough to get out of Seattle with a win.
Offense
Play Type
Plays
Efficiency
Explosive Rate
Adj. YPP
Rush
29
51.72%
3.45%
3.50
Pass
33
48.48%
21.21%
8.55
Total
62
50.00%
12.90%
6.07
Washington’s defense spent the vast majority of the game with one high safety and one low safety at about 12 yards deep who was triggering fast on the run. This was combined with both #76 LT Isaiah World and #72 C Iapani Laloulu coming back after barely playing against USC last week and neither looked to be at 100% when I re-watched the game. World’s pass blocking numbers were closer to what I was seeing before the second bye week, while Laloulu’s run blocking numbers were easily the worst I have ever graded in a full game for him.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBecause Washington didn’t back out both safeties the way defenses like Iowa and Wisconsin did, they risked giving up big plays in the passing game, and those are what allowed Oregon to come away with the victory. Unlike against Minnesota though, while Oregon could hit some deep balls against single coverage there was little consistency in the passing game. I had three drops of catchable balls by the receivers on my tally sheet. One drop by the receiving corps would be considered a good performance, while two would be just acceptable.
My tally sheet also showed #5 QB Dante Moore had his worst game since Indiana in terms of consistency – while the good balls he delivered were great, his rate of delivering off-target or mis-read balls had crept back up. He did enough to earn the win, but there will be a lot to clean up in the coming weeks as his receivers (hopefully) get healthy for the post season.
Though they had only a single explosive run in this game the Ducks were able to get enough push to move the chains in short yardage as often as not. With extra defenders in position against the run, #5 QB Dante Moore also had a greater role in the run game than he had last week. Below is a representative sample of successful rushing plays.
(Reminder – You can use the controls in the bottom right of the embedded player to alter the playback speed and/or enter full screen mode.)
:00 – Here is a rare example of the Huskies backing their safeties out, not wanting to get caught by surprise despite two tight ends to the offense’s right. The Ducks call their bluff with inside zone. On the left side of the line #76 LT World gets too high out of his stance and cannot control the 3-tech who is the first to make contact with the runner, shortly followed by the linebacker #74 RG Iuli was supposed to handle. By then #6 RB Whittington has built up momentum and keeps his legs churning for 6 yards.
:07 – This is an interesting wrinkle on the standard outside zone read. The blocking swaps in the counter play the Ducks have run all season, but it’s a two-back look with a read. We also see #9 TE Ja. Johnson lined up in the backfield to Moore’s right. The backside end crashes on Whittington, so Moore pulls the ball and is clear to the sideline behind Ja. Johnson and #17 WR Perry.
:15 – In the third quarter the offense is facing 2nd and 4, just a bit too far to take a shot downfield, especially as a field goal would give a two possession lead. Oregon has two tight ends to the offense’s right. Sadiq and #83 TE Saleapaga wash down the front while Iuli cuts off the linebacker. The run is held to only four yards as #71 RT Harkey loses control of his man and #75 LG Pregnon falls trying to reach the safety, tripping #0 RB Davison. It’s not a lot, but still enough to move the chains.
:30 – This toss play is designed to get RB #23 Hill around the edge to use his break away speed. Saleapaga loses outside leverage on the DE and #4 WR Benson loses control of the linebacker. They do well enough for the pullers to arrive and allow Hill to cut downfield and power forward for nine yards. If Laloulu and Harkey could stay clean to the safety and the corner Hill might score.
With the line struggling and the safety coming in hot against the run Oregon’s ball carriers struggled to break tackles. The Ducks had only two runs longer than 6 yards and were barely above water in efficiency on the day. Here is a sample of unsuccessful rushing plays.
:00 – The offense’s formation is giving away that this is either a run or a screen, because Perry is covered up by Benson on the far right. The tight ends continuing around the pull of Iuli makes it look like the design is for Davison to start straight ahead then cut outside. He cuts back inside for some reason, right into the defenders pursuing down the line of scrimmage.
:09 – The blocking actually is well executed on this outside zone, Washington is just in the right defensive call. Both inside linebackers are blitzing, while the boundary DE to the offense’s left is dropping into coverage at the snap. This means the deep safety is spinning down to take Hill if it’s a pass, so he is in perfect position to fill the gap. If Hill’s foot hadn’t been caught, he scores.
:23 – The typical alignment of Davison and Hill in the pistol is reversed. Davison is deep to take the hand off rather than be a lead blocker, while Hill is off set and crosses to the back side as a distraction. None of the blockers keep their assigned defenders from getting outside leverage, and Laloulu gets turned backwards and thrown aside.
:30 – Motion by #11 WR McClellan pulls Washington #2 out of the box in coverage. Based on the defense’s alignment the double team of Pregnon and Laloulu need to take care of the nose tackle and MIKE while Ja. Johnson lead’s Whittington through the hole and blocks the safety. World seems to forget the defensive end at the snap and by the time he turns around to find him again Whittington has run into the nose.
In last week’s preview hythloday had noted it was hard to tell just how good Washington’s outside corners were as most teams were happy to attack their linebackers and safeties in the middle of the field. Playing a single high safety in the middle of the field with few exceptions, the Huskies were relying on their outside defenders to hold up with little support. On our podcast we noted OC Will Stein has shown a tendency to attack cornerbacks in exactly this situation, trusting his receivers and challenging a defense where they think they’re the strongest, and that prediction proved accurate. It was justified on Saturday with a number of explosive passes down the sideline, in addition to the tight ends breaking open against interior defenders. Some examples of successful passing plays:
:00 – Benson was the most efficient passing target for Moore on Saturday. This play gives Moore a simple high-low read as he rolls to his right. His first look is to #14 WR Lowe, but the single high safety is over the top of him. Benson has shaken off his defender in the flat, so Moore makes the smart decision to check it down for 5 yards on 1st and 10.
:08 – Later in the same drive the Ducks face second and long. The Huskies show a blitz, notice Laloulu pointing out the extra rusher so the line slides the protection to the offense’s left. The instant the edge bails as part of the sim — a tendency on prior tape — the quarterback knows there will be a gap in coverage between him and the deep safety where he can find Ja. Johnson. The pass is over the first defender and in front of the second for the tight end to make the catch.
:23 – Ja. Johnson was one of two very explosive receivers for Oregon. On this play the Huskies show six rushers, though the defensive end is faking and bails to the short middle of the field. This leaves the safety one-on-one against Ja. Johnson and he is giving up outside leverage. Moore knows he only needs his tight end to break outside and he will be wide open. There is pressure coming from his left, but thanks to Whittington’s blitz pick up a secure pocket to step up in and deliver an accurate throw.
:42 – McClellan started the year 4th on the depth chart among the wide outs, but showed his play making ability with two huge gains on vertical routes (he arguably should have had a third) on Saturday. Moore freezes the single high safety by staring him down in the middle of the field at the snap. This leaves McClellan one-on-one to the boundary where he gains separation and the throw is away from the defender.
The Huskies were able to negatively affect Moore a few times with pressure. Unlike games early in this season, the quarterback and receivers were as much at fault as the offensive line for the passing game being underwater in efficiency. In the end, the only thing stopping Oregon’s passing game from taking control of the contest was Oregon, not their opponent. Below are examples of failed passing plays.
:00 – Washington backs out 8 into coverage to create a tight zone on 3rd and short. Benson and Davison drive the safety and the corner on the offense’s left deeper, and the mesh underneath by Sadiq and Hill leaves the latter wide open for an easy conversion. Moore just misses him when he doesn’t properly step into the throw.
:18 – OC Will Stein called three screens in a row during this drive, none of which succeeded (though there was one successful screen later in the game). The fake to Whittington pulls the DE and the corner out of position, leaving Sadiq with blockers in front of him and the potential for a big gain. The backside defender, Washington #5 DE Durfee, ignores Perry going in motion and follow’s Moore’s eyes to the play. Pregnon cannot get a good angle on him as a result and the gain is minimal.
:37 – Sadiq had his most difficult game of the season. He was targeted seven times but only one play succeeded, including two drops. Here he’s lined up as the inside receiver to the offense’s left, and he works open against single coverage on a corner route. The ball is placed where the defender cannot interfere, but the receiver cannot squeeze it.
:59 – Washington is showing a six man blitz, but just before the snap the nickel creeps up and the safety bails indicating a simulated pressure instead. Moore anticipates that the safety will stay with Ja. Johnson down the seem so he tries to get the ball to Sadiq quickly before the bailing linebacker can get to him. In fact the defender is locked onto Sadiq and Ja. Johnson is streaking downfield wide open. Even if Moore’s initial read was correct, the throw is to McClellan on the in route because the corner has already turned his hips.
Defense
Play Type
Plays
Efficiency
Explosive Rate
Adj. YPP
Rush
24
33.33%
12.50%
5.67
Pass
32
59.38%
9.38%
4.04
Total
56
48.21%
10.71%
4.85
Oregon’s defensive staff came to the same conclusions hythloday had with regard to Washington’s offense. To summarize, the Ducks emphasized backside contain on running plays to guard against Washington QB #2 Demond Williams pulling the ball and getting explosive gains. Similarly, to defend the passing game that is the core of HC Jedd Fisch’s scheme the key was to pressure Williams. Once he dropped his eyes and started to scramble his athleticism needed to be contained. The Ducks were very effective at implementing every part of this plan.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe trade off when emphasizing Williams in the run game would be one less defender against the running backs. While the Huskies have been extremely efficient in the rushing game this season, they had emphasized runs mostly in short yardage and hadn’t shown much explosiveness outside of Williams exploiting undisciplined Big Ten defenders. In Friday’s preview, hythloday had noted that primary ball carrier Washington #1 Coleman was still recovering from an injury and that his primary backup Washington #24 Adam Mohammed hadn’t shown the productivity of a healthy Coleman up to this point.
On the podcast AtQ’s guest Roman Tomashoff has spoken more than once of Mohammed’s potential. That potential finally turned into production on Saturday.
Player
Rush Attempts
Efficiency
Explosive Rate
Adj. YPP
#1 J. Coleman
9
55.56%
0.00%
2.44
#2 D. Williams
2
0.00%
0.00%
5.00
#24 A. Mohammed
13
84.62%
23.08%
8.00
The Huskies first two drives quickly went three-and-out. Mohammed replaced Coleman on the next possession that lasted 7 plays and moved the ball 41 yards. On their 4th offensive drive, Mohammed had runs of 9 and 13 yards that put Washington just outside the red zone before Williams through an interception. Coleman came back in once the Huskies got the ball back, and gained 2 net yards on his next two carries leading to another three-and-out.
All of this is evidence in support of my conclusion that Washington’s offensive staff made a critical error by not adjusting their game plan to emphasize the run even though this goes against their inclination. Had they continued to feed Mohammed, only using Coleman in relief, it would have forced the Ducks to adjust on defense and opened up opportunities in the passing game. (Ed. note: I’m less sanguine about that strategy – hyth.) As it was, Oregon could endure Mohammmed’s production and wait to get the Huskies behind the chains when they tried to throw.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementUnlike many Big Ten teams who react to zone-read plays like they are still playing during the Gerald Ford administration, Oregon was keenly aware of the danger of giving up explosive plays to Demond Williams. The defense showed excellent discipline in staying home against back side keeps. Efficiency defense was in issue, but the Ducks got enough stuffed runs to force passing situations that killed drives. Examples of successful rush defense are shown below.
:00 – The Huskies’ offense is backed up on third down and tries to use Washington #2 Williams’ legs. The receivers are blocking downfield so this was a run all the way. Oregon is playing zone, so both #28 LB Boettcher and #31 DB Thieneman have eyes on the QB. It’s a big gain, but with 14 yards to go deep in Washington territory giving up 9 yards is a big win.
:14 – Reacting immediately to the run action #22 DB Canady holds up the pulling TE with what appears to be some kind of dance off. With Canady staying wide Williams hands off. The running back has no gap behind the tackle and tight end because #54 LB Mixon has filled in so he simply runs into the mess the defensive line has made in the middle.
:21 – Near the goal line #44 OLB Tuioti crashes on the running back from the offense’s left. Thieneman is scraping over to guard against a QB keep. Tuioti is so quick off the snap he runs by the tight end and nearly tackles the mesh and #21 DB Flowers navigates through traffic to clean up.
:33 – Note Thieneman only 8 yards from the line of scrimmage in the middle of the field. This position allows him to scrape over #10 DE Uiagalelei to guard the backside on this run. The quarterback sees Uiagalelei step down and pulls the ball. Thieneman fills in quickly and Mixon keeps outside leverage against the tight end so the speedy Williams has nowhere to run.
The biggest disappointment with the Ducks rush defense in this game was the explosive rate and yards per play they gave up. The explosiveness rate was a bit below FBS average, but a good deal higher than Oregon’s standard this season. I’m not sure where Mohammed had been hiding his burst, but I’m sure DC Tosh Lupoi and has staff are glad they have calendar year before they need to worry about it again. Here is a sample of failed rush defense.
:00 – The QB sees Mixon keeping outside leverage so he hands off to #24 Mohammed. Quick penetration by #52 DT Washington forces the runner to cut backside where Tuioti has been moved by the double team. Oregon’s mint front is fine with giving up 5 yards on 2nd and 1, but the safety’s poor breakdown turns this into an explosive run. Thieneman needs to turn this back inside toward #1 DT Alexander and #28 Boettcher in pursuit.
:22 – Watch Uiagalelei on the offense’s right inducing a give to the running back. Boettcher is knocked back by the guard, and with #7 CB Obidegwu needing to follow the receiver blocking Flowers in man coverage there is nobody left to guard the sideline.
:36 – Even though the quarterback turns away from the line of scrimmage to hand the ball off, Boettcher keeps backside contain in case of a boot leg. Mixon and #4 CB Flowers turn Mohammed back inside, but Thieneman has overrun the play so he can cut back to the A-gap. Flowers missing the tackle from his deep safety position turns a failed play into an explosive one.
:59 – Even before this game the Huskies were very efficient running the ball in short yardage. The defense plays their gap responsibilities correctly, but without any penetration into the backfield there is no chance the stop the runner gaining at least 2 yards.
Though he had few explosive runs or scrambles in this game Williams showed off all of the athleticism that makes him such an asset to the Huskies’ offense. Where he needs to improve is keeping his eyes downfield to find a receiver when he has to break the pocket. Whether due to quick pressure or his first read being covered, once he took off he generally was only looking to run and Oregon had the athletes to keep him contained. Below are examples of successful pass defense.
:00 – Early in the game the Huskies are facing their second three-and-out if they cannot convert third and long. Oregon only rushes three, but leaves Boettcher short in the middle as a spy. Interior pressure from #9 OLB Purchase forces the QB from the pocket and away from his checkdown. Once on the hoof he outruns the angle Boettcher takes to avoid a sack, but he cannot get around the defenders and is forced to throw the ball away.
:24 – If he had time Williams could see his downfield options are covered and check down to the back for a short gain on first down. Immediate pressure by Tuioti never gives him the chance. He is hit as he throws and nearly intercepted.
:46 – The Ducks are in man coverage with two deep safeties (their most common pass coverage in this game, and this season). The quarterback’s first read isn’t open, and by the time he starts his progressions Uiagalelei has discarded his blocker and is looking for a sack. Williams shows his elusiveness, but Thieneman is able to come off his assignment (the dumpoff to the running back) to run him out of bounds.
1:08 – If you watch closely you’ll see the left guard get a head start in pass protection. It doesn’t help as pass rush specialist #32 Nasir Wyatt pushes back the right tackle and Williams has to escape the pocket again. He seems to be doing a better job than usual scanning the field to find a receiver, but nobody is open so all he can do is save yardage with a throwaway.
By this point in the season Washington was well aware of how heavily Oregon’s defense emphasizes man coverage. I thought the Huskies staff did a good job drawing up route combinations to create traffic and rub defenders off the receivers. The execution from their quarterback and pass protection wasn’t good enough to justify calling as many passes as they did, but I suspect Oregon’s possible playoff opponents to closely examine this game footage. Here is a sample of unsuccessful pass defense.
:00 – Seeing his first read taken away by zone coverage the QB checks down to the back. The defender in the flat is #4 CB Finney, who takes proper leverage but loses his footing (a common occurrence in this stadium).
:24 – The Huskies are trying to use tempo and (notice #77 DT Jericho Johnson running the fifty yard dash to avoid 12 men on the field). The Ducks are in man coverage and the nickel defender Canady gets rubbed to open up room in the flat for Washington #7 Vines-Bright. Both players are victims of the great Seattle slip-n-slide but Canady comes off the worst for it and allows extra yards after the catch.
: 35– Oregon did a good job containing Williams when he tried to scramble, but they couldn’t stop him every time. Canady is coming on a blitz from the offense’s left and does well to dodge the TE running to the flat. He loses outside contain though and with #26 LB Jackson assigned to the tight end in coverage the quarterback has nothing but green turf in front of him.
:55 – A field goal doesn’t help the Huskies trailing by 12 with 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter, so they have to convert 4th and 8 to keep themselves in the game. Washington’s staff was well aware of the Ducks’ proclivity for man coverage in the red zone and drew this route combination up with that in mind. There is only one high safety lined up to the boundary because Jackson needs to be a spy against a QB scramble and passing strength is to the field. Once #5 CB Th. Johnson gets rubbed Williams can step up in the pocket and his best receiver is wide open.