Beyond The Box Score: Are You Not Entertained?

Run.

The.

Ball.

Has that been the most common complaint this year? It feels like it, yeah? We’d watch Missouri’s offense attempt some obvious play-action boot to the short side of the field or deep shots to the sideline with very little help of being caught (unless you’re Donovan Olugbode) and then the internet collective would complain that Mizzou wasn’t running the ball enough.

Well…you couldn’t complain about that on Saturday!

Against the third-worst defense on the schedule Missouri officially ran the ball 54 times and attempted a pass 9 times. Now, a few of those passes turned to scrambles or sacks, one was a fumble, and of course the botched punt technically counts as a run but, still:

54 runs. 9 passes.

Against an SEC team on the road.

And you know what? It didn’t work all the time! It was an ugly game that turned on special teams and field position. And despite having the better special teams unit, Arkansas lost at home.

So I hope that, at a minimum, that fan base can be satiated with the “run the ball” request as, indeed, Missouri ran the piss out of the ball. And defended incredibly well. And had it’s flashiest portal addition of the offseason deliver a clutch touchdown, despite never being targeted in the passing game.

Football is a weird sport, man.

Here’s the advanced box score:

Missouri averaged 1.6 yards per pass, nearly 9 yards-to-go on 3rd-downs, suffered an 8-yard disadvantage in starting field position, and won. On the road.

When Missouri Has the Ball

On Thursday November 27th, Blake Horvath completed 5 of his 9 pass attempts for 100 yards and a touchdown and no sacks. On Saturday, November 29th, Cale Hellums completed 4 of his 10 pass attempts for 38 yards and a touchdown and no sacks. Both had better raw numbers and advanced numbers in the passing game than Beau Pribula did against on Arkansas.

Horvath and Hellums are the quarterbacks for Navy and Army, respectively.

Just run the ball

Goal: At least a 48% rushing success rate.

Actual: 55.6% rushing success rate

Winner: Missouri

Win 3rd Downs

Goal: At least a 50% 3rd-down success rate

Actual: 40% 3rd-down success rate

Winner: Arkansas

Finish your dang drives

Goal: At least 6 scoring opportunities created and at least 5.2 points per scoring opportunity (31 points)

Actual: 6 scoring opportunities created, 5.2 points per scoring opportunity (31 points…WOOOOOO)

Winner: Missouri

When Arkansas Has The Ball

I do not understand Bobby Petrino’s quarterback management here. K.J. Jackson got the start as a redshirt freshman when senior Taylen Green was good to go, even after a very minor lower body injury scare against Texas when he was cleared to go back in. Jackson was a better passer and a better runner from a success rate standpoint but Petrino insisted on alternating Jackson and Green by quarter. Why? Petrino was the interim who was well aware he was not going to be the head coach for next year, and he’s an old, problematic coordinator who (seemingly) doesn’t have another job lined up. He has no loyalty to these kids (and, based on his history, to anyone in general) and just seemed to want to be weird and give them both a shot to play. I thank him for it, but have no understanding as to why he did.

Endure the ground game

Goal: Under 47% rushing success rate allowed.

Actual: 52.4% rushing success rate allowed

Winner: Arkansas

Turn them over

Goal: +2 turnover margin

Actual: -1 turnover margin

Winner: Arkansas

The Little Things

Weird results from “The Little Things” department. Arkansas seemingly aced the turnover, field position, and special teams aspects from an macro view. But giving up that punt return touchdown killed them, something that doesn’t pop in this box here. Also, Missouri was incredibly unluck to have defended 5 passes and picked off zero of them. National averages indicate they would have gotten one, maybe even two with “normal luck”.

On the demerit front…lmao. Dude. Bobby. Your team. What’s up? I don’t think I’ve ever seen 19 penalties before, and certainly not paired with 7 drops. What a messy day for Arkansas.

Extra Points

You can see the dichotomy of Arkansas’ QB juggles and its effect really well here. Great 1st quarter, stinker of a 2nd when Jackson his replaced by Green. Jackson gets them going in the 3rd with success rates hovering near 40%, then plummets when Green comes back in halfway through the 3rd, then ends in a whimper in the 4th. Outside of the 2nd quarter Missouri was steady and impressive.

72.9% of Missouri’s total yards occurred on 1st down. I can’t think of another time when that was the case. And 38 of the 56 yards on 3rd down came from the Jamal Roberts run in the 3rd quarter.

Missouri’s 2nd-quarter production wasn’t great but all the others were excellent. Arkansas’ yard production got worse as the game went on.

Given the proliferation of runs I went into this chart think Mizzou would have way over 20. Not the case! Those dang explosive rushes really ruined 1st-down production and Missouri won its second game of the year when producing fewer than 20 1st-downs on the day. Bravo, gents!

Conclusion

It was a good season, certainly given all the injuries that occurred. Missouri beat every team they should beat, lost to the 4 Top 10 opponents they played, and managed a bridge season about as well as you could imagine. It was a very Gary Pinkel-esque year: think of his 2006 vintage, or the ‘09 and ‘11 seasons where the offense was starting over with pieces that were going to explode in following seasons.

I don’t know what the ‘26 season will bring or what the portal was giveth/taketh from this squad, but if the building blocks stick around you could have yet another surprise Missouri squad bubbling to the surface.

But, before that, we await the bowl matchup and this last chance to see this version play together.

And we get to keep that big ass trophy. Tight.