Devin Williams, Cody Ponce get big deals; what does it mean?

Two former Brewers (one a major leaguer, the other a top prospect) picked up major free agents deals in the last two days, as former closer Devin Williams signed with the New York Mets and former farmhand Cody Ponce signed with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Let’s take a look at both of these players, one of whom you probably know a lot more about than the other.

Williams, 31, is the known quantity here, although he may be a risky signing after an uncharacteristically bad season in the Bronx. A second-round pick by Milwaukee back in 2013, Williams debuted with the Brewers in 2019, appearing in 13 games with a 3.95 ERA.

He then burst onto the scene in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, appearing in 22 games with an insane 0.33 ERA (one earned run over 27 innings), 0.86 FIP, and 53 strikeouts. All of that earned him NL Rookie of the Year and NL Reliever of the Year honors, as well as some down-ballot Cy Young and MVP votes.

He took a slight step back in 2021, still pitching to a 2.50 ERA, 2.82 FIP, and 87 strikeouts across 54 innings. He was fantastic once again in 2022 and 2023, pitching to a 1.93 ERA, 2.01 FIP, and 96 strikeouts across 60 2/3 innings in 2022 before pitching to a 1.53 ERA, 2.66 FIP, and 87 strikeouts across 58 2/3 innings in 2023, also picking up 51 saves over those two seasons after closer Josh Hader was traded. Williams was also named an All-Star in both 2022 and 2023 and earned another NL Reliever of the Year award.

Williams missed the start of the 2024 season with stress fractures in his back, but after returning in the middle of the season, he pitched to a sterling 1.25 ERA, 2.06 FIP, and 38 strikeouts with 14 saves over 21 2/3 innings. Of course, Williams struggled in playoff appearances in both 2023 and 2024, allowing six runs over just 2 1/3 innings (23.14 ERA), including a heartbreaking home run to the Mets’ Pete Alonso in the 2024 NL Wild Card Series.

Williams was dealt to the Yankees last offseason, as Milwaukee netted lefty Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin. In his first (and only) season with the Yankees, he struggled to a 4.79 ERA, though his underlying 2.68 FIP indicates at least some bad luck. He also struck out 90 and picked up 18 saves over 62 innings. Unlike with the Brewers, however, he was great in the postseason. Across four appearances, Williams allowed no runs on three hits and a pair of walks, striking out four.

All of that somehow earned him a three-year, $50 million deal from the New York Mets. More on that below.

Ponce, 31, is an interesting signing for the Blue Jays. Another second-round pick by the Brewers, Ponce was taken out of Cal State Poly in 2015, where he pitched to a 2.42 ERA with 162 strikeouts over 185 2/3 innings across three seasons.

Beginning his career in the low-level minors, Ponce pitched his way up to Double-A Biloxi by 2019 before he was traded to the Pirates for Jordan Lyles. Ponce then spent the remainder of 2019 at Double-A and Triple-A for Pittsburgh before making his MLB debut in 2020. Across five games (three starts) that season, Ponce pitched to a solid 3.18 ERA with 12 strikeouts over 17 innings, picking up his first career win.

In 2021, he split time between Triple-A and the majors, though he had very little success in either place. With the Pirates, he made 15 appearances (two starts) with a 7.98 ERA and 36 strikeouts across 38 1/3 innings, going 0-6.

He was released by the Pirates after the season, and then headed overseas, playing in Japan in 2022, 2023, and 2024. He then headed to Korea in 2025, where he had a breakout season with the Hanwha Eagles, pitching to an incredible 1.89 ERA, 17-1 record, and 252 strikeouts over 180 2/3 innings, earning himself MVP honors.

That season managed to net him a huge three-year, $30 million deal with the Blue Jays, a crazy amount for a 31-year-old pitcher with no MLB success and only one really great season overseas. But what do I know?

So, what does all of this mean for the free agent market? Probably nothing good for small market teams like Milwaukee.

Take a look at every big-ish contract signed thus far:

• Dylan Cease (Blue Jays): 7 years, $210 million

• Raisel Iglesias (Braves): 1 year, $16 million

• Ryan Helsley (Orioles): 2 years, $28 million

• Josh Naylor (Mariners): 5 years, $92.5 million

• Phil Maton (Cubs): 2 years, $14.5 million

Even Alek Manoah, a former first-round pick who hasn’t had any real success the last three or so years, got himself a one-year, $1.95 million guaranteed contract (albeit with the Angels). Add Williams and Ponce to that list, and you have the makings of a not-so-good offseason for teams like the Brewers.

Worse news? The Brewers are reportedly concerned about payroll, looking to offload money rather than add to the payroll. Good news? There aren’t any glaring holes on the roster, as the current roster is very similar to the one that finished with MLB’s best record in 2025.

Even so, if the Brewers did want to make a splashy move, the state of the free agent market is not promising. That leaves us with the question: Is baseball broken?