Louisville at Arkansas preview

Louisville Cardinals (7-0) at Arkansas Razorbacks (5-2)

Game Time: 7:15 p.m.

Location: Bud Walton Arena: Fayetteville, Ark.

Television: ESPN

Announcers: Karl Ravech (play-by-play) and Jimmy Dykes (analysis)

Officials: TBA

Favorite: Louisville by 3.5

Series: Tied 4-4

Last Meeting: Arkansas won 80-54 on Nov. 21, 2022 in the quarterfinals of the Maui Invitational

Series History:

Projected Starting Lineups:

Louisville

• G Mikel Brown Jr. (6-5, 190, Fr.)

• G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)

• G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)

• F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, 6th)

• F/C Sananda Fru (6-11, 245, Jr.)

Arkansas

• G Darius Acuff Jr. (6-3, Fr., 190)

• G D.J. Wagner (6-4, 190, Jr.)

• F Karter Knox (6-6, 220, So.)

• F Nick Pringle (6-10, 230, Gr.)

• Trevon Brazile (6-10, 230, Sr.)

Statistics:

Arkansas’ Season to Date:

Relevant Videos:

About Arkansas:

Louisville’s first true road test of the season comes Wednesday night, and it’ll be a doozy against 25th-ranked Arkansas. The Razorbacks have two losses already this season, but they came away from home and in competitive fashion against two of the best teams in the country in undefeated Michigan State and Duke. The problem for John Calipari’s team is that its five wins have all come in buy games against teams that don’t exactly move the needle nationally.

The Hogs have a chance to change that on Wednesday, and you can expect Bud Walton Arena — already one of the toughest places to win in college basketball — to be electric as a result.

While they weren’t able to get over the hump against either Duke (a team they led with 5 minutes to play) or Michigan State (a team that has beaten every other team on its schedule by double figures), Arkansas still possesses a combination of size, skill and athleticism that has the potential to give Louisville fits.

Like the Cards, Arkansas has been defined by its backcourt play so far. Also like the Cards, the player leading that charge is a true freshman.

Actually, it’s a pair of first years.

Five-star freshmen Meleek Thomas (17.6 ppg/3.9 apg) and Darius Acuff (17.4 ppg/4.4 apg) have been sensational for Calipari so far this season. Both freshman stars want to tilt the floor and play downhill, but both are also capable of going absolutely nuts from beyond the arc. Thomas is the hire volume shooter, but it’s Acuff who comes into Wednesday’s game hitting at a 45.0 percent clip from deep. Both players are natural point guards and share the duties of initiating the Razorback offense.

With so much talk that the first three point guards taken in next year’s NBA Draft might all be on the court at the same time Wednesday night, Mikel Brown Jr. can’t let this become a personal thing the way it seemed like he did when Darryn Peterson was lighting up the Yum Center for Kansas. Acuff and Thomas are going to score a ton because that’s the role Calipari has assigned them. Mikel has to let the game come to him and understand that if he’s not getting quality looks from the outside, that means the door is open for him to get the ball to someone close to him that is being afforded more space.

The biggest thing with Arkansas’ guards is that Louisville can’t afford to let them go crazy in transition. If they light it up in halfcourt situations then you tip your cap, but letting these guys get out on the break and get 16-20 points off uncontested layups is the biggest recipe for disaster tonight.

Arkansas’ other primary contributors are more established names in college basketball.

Senior 6’10 forward Trevon Brazile is the team’s top frontcourt performer. The fourth-year Razorback is averaging 12.7 points and a team-high 7.7 rebounds. One of the most athletic bigs in college basketball, Brazile is an elite finisher at the rim who also has a capable outside stroke. In true modern fashion, those are pretty much the only types of shots he’ll take.

The guy is an absolute beast who plays with boundless energy on both ends of the floor. He is a problem.

Nick Pringle and Florida State transfer Malique Ewin are Arkansas’ other capable 6’10 forwards. As was the case against Cincinnati, the size, skill and athleticism from the Razorback frontcourt should demand quality bench minutes from both Khani Rooths and Kasean Pryor, because this will be a tough assignment at the four for the undersized J’Vonne Hadley.

If you’re reading this you’re likely also familiar with names like Karter Knox, DJ Wagner and Billy Richmond. I don’t think any of those three guys expected to still be playing college basketball at this point in their careers, and now two of the three (Knox and Wagner) have been asked to accept slightly diminished roles because of the additions of Thomas and Acuff. While the freshman duo is undoubtedly Arkansas’ headlining tandem, any of these three guys have the ability to flip this game on its head.

Arkansas protects the ball extremely well — particularly for having freshmen guards — and ranks 14th in the country in turnover percentage. However, the Hogs are also forcing only 12 turnovers per game and rank 237th in turnover percentage defensively.

Arkansas will run with Louisville, which seems fine on the surface, but is more concerning when you take into account how efficient the Hogs have been in transition (No. 3 in the country) and compare it with the fact that Louisville is getting just 8% of its offense off of fast break points. The Razorbacks are a good three-point shooting team, but are better inside the arc. Outside of the two freshmen, pretty much every other primary contributor for Calipari is far more lethal as a driver.

One are where Louisville has got to exploit Arkansas is on the glass. U of L is No. 35 and No. 18 in offensive and defensive rebounding, respectively. Arkansas, on the other hand, is No. 214 and No. 141 in the same areas. In their two losses this season, the Hogs were out-rebounded by a combined total of 82-61.

The last major key for the Cards in this one is to defend well without fouling. Arkansas shoots 80.0 percent from the free-throw line as a team, the 11th-best average in the sport. If the game is being called tight early on, Louisville must adjust accordingly.

Also, Kenny Payne sucks at coaching.

Notable:

—Louisville is 7-0 for the first time since the 2019-20 season, and entering the month of December with an unblemished record for the first time since that same campaign.

—Louisville is 1-0 all-time in road games against Arkansas, defeating the Razorbacks in overtime (91-88) in December of 1996.

—Arkansas head coach John Calipari is 19-8 all-time in games against Louisville. He went 2-0 against the Cards as the head coach at UMass, 4-5 at Memphis State, and 13-3 while at Kentucky.

—Arkansas assistant head coach Kenny Payne was 12-52 as Louisville’s head coach from 2022-24.

—Louisville is 0-1 all-time in the ACC-SEC Challenge, losing 86-63 at home to Ole Miss last season.

—Arkansas is 2-0 all-time in the ACC-SEC Challenge.

—Louisville’s back-to-back 40-point wins (87-46 over Eastern Michigan & 104-47 over NJIT) are the program’s first set of back-to-back 40-point victories since 2012-13.

—With two 50-point victories on the season (104-45 vs. South Carolina State & 104-47 vs. NJIT), it marks the first time Louisville has had two 50-point victories in one season since 2004-05.

—With Arkansas’ win over Samford (Nov. 11), Razorback head coach John Calipari recorded his 880th career win as an NCAA Division I coach, passing Dean Smith for sixth all-time. Coach Cal now has 882 on-court wins and is 18 shy of reaching 900 wins as head coach of an NCAA Division I program.

—Arkansas is averaging 29.63 points on fastbreaks, which ranks 3rd-best in the NCAA. The Hogs had 34 fastbreak points versus Jackson State, compared to four by the Tigers.

—Louisville is 1-0 in games against top 25 opponents this season. Arkansas is 0-2.

—Louisville has hit the 100-point mark four times in a season for the first time since 1989-90.

—Louisville has a 265-84 record against non-conference opponents over the last 24 seasons (includes postseason).

—Louisville enters Wednesday night’s game ranked fourth in the country in scoring offense at 96.7 ppg.

—Pat Kelsey is the reigning ACC Coach of the Year and is one of 10 active DI head coaches that have earned a Coach of the Year honor in three or more DI conferences.

—Louisville is 34-0 under Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play.

—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 10 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.

—Louisville is 120-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.

—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.

Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 84, Arkansas 81