Fantasy Football Week 14 Panic Meter: The Panthers' backfield might become a problem

I still remember my first guest spot on a podcast. It was only supposed to go 30 minutes, but I spent three days prepping for it. Every stat was at my disposal. Other than my poor-quality webcam, I was ready. My preparations were (beyond) thorough. But when I went to join the video call to start the show, I couldn’t connect. Nothing worked. I even tested the connection the night before. It took multiple reboots, but this past weekend of football reminded me of those panic-inducing moments from almost a decade ago.

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This week is it. The fantasy football playoffs are on the horizon. And most of us have been prepping our rosters for the stretch run. We’ve been studying defensive matchups and adding players with contingent value. Getting to this point has been the crux of every decision. However, if last week’s games were any indication, our plans only mean so much. And in some cases, the usage trends might have us scrambling at the last minute to keep our hopes of winning a championship alive.

A Rookie Season in Reverse

I’ll say this somewhat tongue in cheek, but the start of Emeka Egbuka’s career was too good to be true.

For the first five weeks of the season, the Bucs’ rookie WR was averaging the third-most PPR PPG. And the runout couldn’t have been better for fantasy managers who drafted him. Chris Godwin’s return timeline was an unknown. Mike Evans headed to IR after Week 3. Egbuka was already running 88% of Baker Mayfield’s dropbacks and averaging seven targets per game as the WR2. The quick promotion was like he was speed running his first year. However, there were signs that things needed to change about Egbuka’s game.

• Air Yards per Target (Weeks 1-5): 13.8, 2nd (out of 32 WRs – min. 20.0% target rate)

• Explosive Play Rate: 27.5%, 3rd

• Slot Target Rate: 15.9%, 27th

To be clear, it’s not a bad thing to see a receiver, independent of how long they’ve been in the league, win on intermediate or deep routes. Said another way, trying to access a ceiling is good! But it can’t be everything. Over a third of Egbuka’s targets were deep shots. Accordingly, they were his primary means of production. Four of his five TDs came on throws of 20 air yards or more, and those attempts accounted for 65.4% of his yardage total. However, the injuries surrounding Egbuka started to take their toll.

The shuffling along the Bucs’ offensive line has wreaked havoc on Mayfield’s game. He’s sitting right next to Dillon Gabriel (-8.2%) and Davis Mills (-5.2%) in completion percentage over expected over the last two months. Meanwhile, Egbuka has run nearly double the number of routes against man coverage, which has limited his output. He’s connected with Mayfield on just one of those same deep shots since Week 6. But I’m not pushing the panic button just yet.

• Target Share: 23% (First Five Games), 31% (Last Five Games)

• Air Yards per Target: 14.1, 10.4

• Play-Action Target Rate: 21%, 39%

Godwin is back in the lineup. Bucky Irving even returned on Sunday to siphon away a few extra looks. But through it all, Egbuka has been Mayfield’s main guy. Plus, the former Buckeye has been operating closer to the line of scrimmage. He just needs time to adjust to his new role. It’s like he’s living his rookie year in reverse. But at least we know the talent is there, which should shine in the fantasy playoffs.

Well Done, Carolina! Now, Do It Again …

I hadn’t turned it on yet, but I knew the Rams-Panthers game was going to be a wild one when I got the notification that Chuba Hubbard had scored a receiving TD.

First off, tip of the cap to HC Dave Canales and his QB Bryce Young. Just six days prior to hosting the Rams, Young couldn’t muster a single first down as a thrower in obvious passing situations against the 49ers. Instead of taking the quarterback out of the game plan, Canales’ strategy hinged on both facets of the offense working together. However, to say Sunday was the best of the Panthers offense would be an understatement.

• Passing Success Rate: 50.0% (Week 13), 44.9% (Average Weeks 1-12)

• Rushing Success Rate: 64.7%, 47.5%

• Explosive Play Rate: 9.7%, 9.3%

I’m not saying everything worked for Young when he had the ball. He took a couple of sacks. The Rams met Hubbard and Rico Dowdle in the backfield on 40% of their carries. But Young tied for his fewest dropbacks on the year. Carolina’s -24% pass rate over expectation (PROE) was a season-low mark. In other words, they were operating on slim margins. But at least one of the Panthers’ RBs was able to keep the offense on schedule.

• (Early-Down) Rushing Success: 66.7%, 2nd (out of 16 single-game performances from a CAR RB)

• Adj. Yards After Contact per Attempt: 3.17, 6th

Hubbard noted that rushing back from injury earlier in the season led to the setback, which catapulted Dowdle into the spotlight. It’s no wonder that at full strength, Hubbard challenged his teammate for one of the better performances of the season. It didn’t matter that the Rams placed eight or more men in the box on two-thirds of Hubbard’s totes. Between the Panthers’ offensive line (2.25 yards before contact per rush) and Hubbard’s vision, Young had more manageable distances to the sticks on third and fourth down. Of course, those attempts resulted in him generating the most TDs and the second-most yards of any QB. But that’s still not the biggest takeaway from Sunday.

• Snap Rate: 58% (Hubbard), 44% (Dowdle)

• Rushing Share: 49%, 51%

• Target Rate: 11%, 11%

Admittedly, it’s a one-week sample, but the split requires the game environment for either to produce. On top of Young outkicking his season averages, the Panthers need to stay in contention in each of their games. And with matchups against the Seahawks (allowing the second-fewest rushing YPG) and Buccaneers (10th-fewest) on their upcoming schedule, I’d worry about starting Dowdle in the playoffs.

Michael Harrison Jr. … Marvin Wilson … I Can’t Tell Anymore

To be fair, the realistic outcome of Marvin Harrison Jr.’s return was a downtick in production for Michael Wilson. Sure, he’s performed better than the Ohio State product over a two-game stretch. However, a weekly diet of 16 targets would be difficult to maintain with a third pass-catcher on the field. But since Jacoby Brissett was averaging 43.5 passes per game, there’d be enough attempts to keep everyone happy. At least the Cardinals’ backup QB held up his end of the bargain.

Brissett threw the ball 40 times on Sunday. A few under his (half) season average, but he had the second-most attempts against the Buccaneers of any QB to face them so far. He’s now the fourth passer to eclipse 300 yards when going up against HC Todd Bowles’ secondary. Only three other signal-callers put up more air yards. I’m harping on all of these opportunity stats because, as I said, there should’ve been enough for both receivers to stay relevant. And based on the volume both earned, that was a fair assumption.

• Target Rate: 20% (Harrison), 20% (Wilson)

• Air Yard Share: 30%, 31%

• aDOT: 12.4, 12.7

The only problem was the results. Neither cracked 70 yards nor could they save their day with a touchdown. Even worse, their route trees had some of the same branches. Said another way, it’d be hard to discern which of the two is worth starting with the fantasy playoffs on the line. However, if I had to pick (I honestly don’t because I don’t have them on any of the contending rosters), the Ohio State product has the edge.

Despite primarily playing on the outside, Harrison earned a target on 42.9% of his snaps from the slot. Five of the seven passes thrown his way came in less than 2.5 seconds. In addition, Brissett was looking deep for Harrison on timing routes. Seeing Harrison shift to a flanker role instead of his typical X-receiver alignment coincided with his highest on-target rate since Week 6. Combined with his strong usage, the second-year receiver has a chance for a strong finish to 2025.

The Bad Vibes are Back in Philly

“If you’ve got me on fantasy, get rid of me.”

On a real note, if I were trying to disconnect by playing a video game and got questions about my day job, I’d probably say something wild, too. But A.J. Brown’s words became a talking point for the second (third? fourth?) time this season. However, it was one thing when Jalen Hurts would target Brown and the Eagles would win. However, his ascension came at a price.

• Week 11: 44% (Brown target rate), 18.8 (Team Yards per Drive), -1.3 (EPA per Drive)

• Week 12: 29%, 27.2, -0.3

• Week 13: 40%, 27.0, -0.4

We already knew that the Eagles’ rushing attack was problematic. Independent of the cause, whether it’s Saquon Barkley taking a step back or the injuries to the run blocking unit, the offense couldn’t rely on the same formula to win games. In 2024, their PROE on 1st and 10 was -10% and Barkley averaged five yards per carry. Over the last three months, he ranks 24th out of 35 RBs in rushing success rate. Accordingly, Hurts has needed to get at least 7.9 yards in obvious passing situations to move the chains. It’s the ninth-most among active passers. So, on the one hand, it’s good to see the Eagles lean on their passing game. But on the flip side, the results have highlighted some of Hurts’ flaws as a passer.

Of course, it’s one rep. But watching Hurts struggle each week and then hearing the debates about OC Kevin Patullo’s play-calling afterward hasn’t amounted to much change. During Friday’s loss to the Bears, the Eagles notched their lowest pre-snap motion rate of the year (28.6%). Hurts spent six snaps under center. It’s as if they learned nothing from the success the team found against the Vikings or Giants (the second time). Consequently, the reigning Super Bowl MVP has slipped into the middle of the pack as a passer when his team has needed him most.

• Passing Success Rate (since Week 11): 30.0%, 18th (out of 31 qualifiers – min. 50 dropbacks)

• EPA per Dropback: -0.07, 14th

• First Down Conversion Rate: 31.0%, 18th

In any case, the fantasy implications are frustrating but straightforward. Hurts’ 33.7 passing attempts and seven rushes per game will have him in the top-12 discussion every week. He hasn’t had a week without a red-zone touch since early October. And even as Brown has jumped to a 37% target rate over the last three weeks, DeVonta Smith (while battling injury) has been just behind Brown in air yard share (40% to 34%). Hurts’ ailing down-to-down efficiency will add uncertainty to each of his pass-catchers. Still, their opportunity and penchant for creating explosives should keep them on our rosters during the playoffs.